Polymarket Trader

Lowtaperfade

0xbdd08fc7a71196e4aa28741b903cb8e8ccbe550a

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $717.7
Realized PnL: $1.55K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $364.78
Potential payout: $434.26
Potential profit: $69.48
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $18.01

Yes position

Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $338.46
Potential profit: $338.46
User PnL: -$4.12

Yes position

Will Bibisara Assaubayeva win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?

Ends Jul 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $239.24
Potential profit: $239.24
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $227.02
Potential profit: $227.02
User PnL: -$3.1

Yes position

Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$1

No position

World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$162

Yes position

Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $199.97
Potential profit: $199.87
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.7

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $187.71
Potential profit: $187.71
User PnL: -$7

No position

Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 6?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $168.37
Potential profit: $168.37
User PnL: -$0.34

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $128.25
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $21.75
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $14.75

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $140.91
Potential profit: $140.91
User PnL: -$7.65

Yes position

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.35
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.65
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.65

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $86.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $13.5
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $16.5

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $80.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $19.5
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $10.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $89.5
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$82

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $13.05
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $76.95
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$11.75

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $87.05
Potential profit: $87.05
User PnL: -$55

Yes position

Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $85.13
Potential profit: $85.13
User PnL: -$1.08

Yes position

Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $85
Potential profit: $84.96
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.06

No position

Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.86
Potential payout: $81.74
Potential profit: $80.88
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$66.66

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $79.66
Potential profit: $79.66
User PnL: -$52.2

Yes position

Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $32.76
Potential payout: $78.95
Potential profit: $46.18
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $2.76

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $150.82

Yes position

Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $96.48

Yes position

Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $90.68

Yes position

Chirayu Rana sued?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.78

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.54

No position

US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.4

No position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.64

Yes position

Will Hans Niemann win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?

Ends Jul 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $71.9

Yes position

Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 50% and 52%?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.05

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.74

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.66

No position

Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.74

No position

US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.6

Yes position

Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $54.6

No position

Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.08

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.68

Yes position

Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $49.37

Yes position

Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $47.7

Yes position

Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.88

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44

No position

Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41

Yes position

Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.1

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.07

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

England vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?

10% 29.26 shares
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? AND Will England win on 2026-07-01?

23.4% 20.86 shares
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? AND Will England win on 2026-07-01? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?

26.1% 11.16 shares
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Yes 86% 6.73 shares
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Yes 13% 30 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Down 4% 25 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Down 20% 25 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Up 79% 19.28 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Up 78% 10.2 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Up 78% 10.2 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Up 72% 10.2 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Up 63% 39.68 shares