Yes position
Military action against Iran ends on March 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.02K
- Potential profit
- $1.02K
- User PnL
- -$1.1
Polymarket Trader
0xBdf936398b2bc4233aF206944c503c6065ea0e7C-1760343078288
0xbdf936398b2bc4233af206944c503c6065ea0e7c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $62.69
- Realized PnL
- $11.89
- Win rate
- 71.4%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 7
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $340
- Potential profit
- $340
- User PnL
- -$4.42
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $1.78
- Potential payout
- $237.98
- Potential profit
- $236.2
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$3.22
Yes position
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $155
- Potential profit
- $155
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.7%
- Current value
- $17.53
- Potential payout
- $112.02
- Potential profit
- $94.49
- Multiplier
- 6.39x
- User PnL
- $4.2
Yes position
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $1.95
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $98.04
- Multiplier
- 51.28x
- User PnL
- -$1.35
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $86.67
- Potential profit
- $86.67
- User PnL
- -$1.3
Yes position
Taylor Swift pregnant by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $74.22
- Potential profit
- $74.22
- User PnL
- -$1.1
Yes position
Natural Disaster in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20%
- Current value
- $10.7
- Potential payout
- $53.48
- Potential profit
- $42.78
- Multiplier
- 5.00x
- User PnL
- -$5.43
No position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $11.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $38.75
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- $6.25
Yes position
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $0.73
- Potential payout
- $41.94
- Potential profit
- $41.2
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.57
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $2.85
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $27.15
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$1.35
Yes position
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $29.21
- Potential profit
- $28.22
- Multiplier
- 29.41x
- User PnL
- $0.35
Yes position
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$6.8
Yes position
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $4.5
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $15.5
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- $1.7
No position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.15
- Potential profit
- $15.15
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $0.9
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $14.1
- Multiplier
- 16.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.2
Yes position
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 60%
- Current value
- $6
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $4
- Multiplier
- 1.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.2
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.7%
- Current value
- $3.5
- Potential payout
- $3.74
- Potential profit
- $0.24
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.17
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Jensen Huang say "Anthropic" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.29
No position
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- User PnL
- $2.55
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.31
No position
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.1
Yes position
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.44
Yes position
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.4%
- Multiplier
- 9.66x
- User PnL
- -$2.03
Yes position
Kylie Jenner confirmed pregnant in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$2.77
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Natural Disaster in 2026?Yes 26% 20 shares
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?No 10% 10.84 shares
- Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?Yes 14% 15 shares
- Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Yes 72% 10 shares
- Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?Yes 2.2% 23.38 shares
- Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?Yes 3.3% 35.3 shares
- Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?Yes 14% 20 shares
- Natural Disaster in 2026?Yes 26% 12.28 shares
- Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?No 98.9% 16.06 shares
- Natural Disaster in 2026?Yes 28% 5 shares
- Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Yes 5% 25.38 shares
- Kylie Jenner confirmed pregnant in 2026?Yes 9% 6.16 shares