Polymarket Trader

mtds

0xbe04ce36049dd3f54b8e5697aac64b2ee12a0ecf

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $798.16
Realized PnL: $1.83K
Win rate: 70.8%
Open positions: 5
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.25K
Potential profit: $21.25K
User PnL: -$598.5

No position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $389.36
Potential payout: $916.14
Potential profit: $526.78
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$96.09

No position

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $352.33
Potential payout: $429.67
Potential profit: $77.34
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $152.33

Yes position

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $230.89
Potential profit: $230.89
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $56.47
Potential payout: $142.97
Potential profit: $86.5
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: -$43.53

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $546.51

No position

Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $480.88

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $370

No position

Will Paxos win the USDH ticker?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.03

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $65

No position

Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.91

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.28

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.2%
Multiplier: 45.45x
User PnL: $43.95

No position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.85

Yes position

Will Powell say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during April press conference?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.82

Yes position

Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.58

No position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.52

No position

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.56

No position

Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.2

No position

Will Ethena win the USDH ticker?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.19

No position

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.7

Yes position

Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

No position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

No 53% 916.13 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 0.5% 20,374 shares
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Yes 7% 250 shares
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Yes 9% 312.5 shares
Fed rate hike in 2026?

No 61% 99.99 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 56.9% 872.83 shares
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81

No 54.5% 183.33 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?

Yes 65% 23.08 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?

Yes 58% 86.21 shares
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Yes 20% 250 shares
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81

No 40.6% 246.34 shares
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

Yes 69.9% 142.97 shares