Polymarket Trader

waration

0xbe22bfb458bbc951cf3daaa70416b9cba493110d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.99
Realized PnL: $9.62
Win rate: 69.6%
Open positions: 3
Closed positions: 23
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.68
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.23
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 52.2%
Current value: $3.31
Potential payout: $6.34
Potential profit: $3.03
Multiplier: 1.92x
User PnL: $1.49

No position

Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.21
Potential profit: $3.21
User PnL: -$1.09

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.21

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 26?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.66

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.51

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.9

Seahawks position

Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.8

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.58

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.18

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.11

No position

Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04

Hurricanes position

Canadiens vs. Hurricanes

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.87

Yes position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.85

No position

Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.81

No position

Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.77

Jets position

Canucks vs. Jets

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.77

No position

Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.43

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.31

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15?

Ends Feb 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Heat position

Bulls vs. Heat

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.3

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.61

Bruins position

Bruins vs. Devils

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.67

Yes position

Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.45

Magic position

Lakers vs. Magic

Ends Mar 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.91

No position

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.22

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Yes 28.7% 6.34 shares
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 34% 3.21 shares
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes

Hurricanes 66% 2.55 shares
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Yes 41.9% 5.85 shares
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Yes 29% 7.34 shares
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Yes 80% 1.53 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?

No 32% 3.69 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?

No 59% 4.64 shares
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?

No 66% 4.88 shares
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?

No 76% 3.38 shares
Lakers vs. Magic

Magic 42% 6.93 shares
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March?

No 60% 2.6 shares