No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $926.58
- Potential payout
- $1.18K
- Potential profit
- $253.78
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $56.59
Polymarket Trader
RTM4k
0xbe847a8e993e0f614ddafc90ea9ae466723de34e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.07K
- Realized PnL
- $18.87
- Win rate
- 61.5%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 13
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $245.83
- Potential payout
- $297.97
- Potential profit
- $52.14
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $145.83
No position
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $268.62
- Potential payout
- $296.82
- Potential profit
- $28.2
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $32.62
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $185.38
- Potential payout
- $202.6
- Potential profit
- $17.22
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $29.38
No position
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $174.25
- Potential payout
- $183.52
- Potential profit
- $9.27
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $7.25
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $158.66
- Potential payout
- $177.27
- Potential profit
- $18.61
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $2.66
No position
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.2%
- Current value
- $106.86
- Potential payout
- $126.91
- Potential profit
- $20.05
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $6.86
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.28
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.05
Yes position
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.12
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.38
No position
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.02
No position
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.56
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.01
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.92
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Claude 4.7 released by April 17?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$96.67
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$161.81
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No 75% 826.67 shares
- Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?No 91% 183.52 shares
- Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?No 80% 107.5 shares
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No 68% 147.06 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No 99.9% 186.28 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No 75% 186.28 shares
- Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?No 16.8% 555.8 shares
- Claude 4.7 released by April 17?No 9% 556.11 shares
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?No 47.4% 289.43 shares
- DeepSeek V4 released by April 7?No 92.7% 136.93 shares
- AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?No 71% 70.42 shares
- Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?Yes 60.2% 166.12 shares