Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $25.47K
- Potential payout
- $32.04K
- Potential profit
- $6.57K
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- -$1.77K
Polymarket Trader
simpleman
0xbe89905ca9a689f5129621b62fcf715b5a45b88c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $74.2K
- Realized PnL
- $102.38K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.6%
- Current value
- $7.48K
- Potential payout
- $7.9K
- Potential profit
- $426.76
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $394.58
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $5.74K
- Potential payout
- $7.04K
- Potential profit
- $1.3K
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$5.06
No position
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $6.49K
- Potential payout
- $6.52K
- Potential profit
- $29.34
- User PnL
- $833.99
No position
US military draft authorized in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $5.26K
- Potential payout
- $5.63K
- Potential profit
- $366
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $201.12
No position
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $4.41K
- Potential payout
- $5.28K
- Potential profit
- $870.57
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $724.55
No position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $4.55K
- Potential payout
- $4.67K
- Potential profit
- $119.01
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $547.96
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $4.28K
- Potential payout
- $4.63K
- Potential profit
- $347.04
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $87.95
No position
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $1.88K
- Potential payout
- $2.21K
- Potential profit
- $331.27
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $206.25
No position
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $1.35K
- Potential payout
- $1.52K
- Potential profit
- $174.77
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- -$22.12
No position
Will Trump be impeached by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $1.3K
- Potential payout
- $1.31K
- Potential profit
- $5.88
- User PnL
- $29.08
No position
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $1.12K
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $11.84
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $27.44
No position
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $874.44
- Potential payout
- $878.39
- Potential profit
- $3.95
- User PnL
- $9.22
Yes position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 57%
- Current value
- $474.77
- Potential payout
- $833.08
- Potential profit
- $358.31
- Multiplier
- 1.75x
- User PnL
- -$25.23
Y
Yes position
Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $711.19
- Potential payout
- $794.63
- Potential profit
- $83.44
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$11.92
No position
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 57%
- Current value
- $333.28
- Potential payout
- $584.81
- Potential profit
- $251.53
- Multiplier
- 1.75x
- User PnL
- $26.28
No position
Fetterman leaves the Democrats by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $555.63
- Potential payout
- $569
- Potential profit
- $13.37
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $32.15
No position
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $561.96
- Potential payout
- $567.92
- Potential profit
- $5.96
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $76.52
No position
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $405.29
- Potential payout
- $522.96
- Potential profit
- $117.67
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $88.07
Yes position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $519.15
- Potential profit
- $519.15
- User PnL
- -$222
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Current value
- $171
- Potential payout
- $456
- Potential profit
- $285
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- $35.32
No position
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $406.67
- Potential payout
- $444.44
- Potential profit
- $37.78
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $6.67
Yes position
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $9.62
- Potential payout
- $409.32
- Potential profit
- $399.71
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- -$40.17
No position
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.2%
- Current value
- $384.79
- Potential payout
- $399.99
- Potential profit
- $15.2
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $84.8
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.42K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.66K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.61K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.59K
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.87K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.4K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?
Ends Jun 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.17K
Yes position
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.46K
Yes position
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in November?
Ends Dec 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.18K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.07K
No position
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.88K
No position
Trump second inauguration gets more viewers than first?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.84K
No position
Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.81K
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.79K
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.75K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during Super Bowl pregame interview?
Ends Feb 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.46K
Yes position
Will the Conservatives win between 140-149 seats in the next Canadian Election?
Ends Oct 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41K
Yes position
Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?
Ends Mar 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.38K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?
Ends Jan 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.26K
No position
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Lori Chavez-DeRemer as Secretary of Labor?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14K
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
No position
Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06K
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05K
No position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes 60% 833.08 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No 42% 100 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 87% 2,500 shares
- Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference?Yes 41.2% 24.3 shares
- Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Conference?Yes 68% 14.71 shares
- Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?No 32.6% 30.64 shares
- Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference?Yes 40% 62.5 shares
- Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during June Press Conference?Yes 20% 7 shares
- Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference?Yes 50.2% 49.81 shares
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference?Yes 23.8% 120 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No 92% 217.85 shares
- US military draft authorized in 2026?No 90% 308.87 shares