Yes position
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $119.45
- Potential payout
- $3.37K
- Potential profit
- $3.25K
- Multiplier
- 28.25x
- User PnL
- -$297.75
Polymarket Trader
NotSoLucky
0xbeeeeda1b5ed5694075fbfe4929e7f28b4eb6bf5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $123.83
- Realized PnL
- $49.41
- Win rate
- 33.3%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $264.29
- Potential profit
- $264.29
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $192.07
- Potential profit
- $192.07
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?
Ends Jan 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $166.23
- Potential profit
- $166.23
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 22?
Ends Nov 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $136.36
- Potential profit
- $136.36
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $115.91
- Potential profit
- $115.91
- User PnL
- -$13
Yes position
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $107.14
- Potential profit
- $107.14
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?
Ends Jan 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $4.38
- Potential payout
- $97.39
- Potential profit
- $93.01
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$15.62
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $76.92
- Potential profit
- $76.92
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $66.67
- Potential profit
- $66.67
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58.82
- Potential profit
- $58.82
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $57.69
- Potential profit
- $57.69
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $45.45
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $45.45
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $41.67
- Potential profit
- $41.67
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 14?
Ends Nov 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40.04
- Potential profit
- $40.04
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 15?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35.71
- Potential profit
- $35.71
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.73
- Potential profit
- $33.73
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30.33
- Potential profit
- $30.33
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25.59
- Potential profit
- $25.59
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.52
- Potential profit
- $20.52
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.23
- Potential profit
- $19.23
- User PnL
- -$5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?
Ends Jan 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.39
No position
Will Israel strike 1 country in November 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45
No position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.11
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?
Ends Nov 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.9
Yes position
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.3
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.62
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.33
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.17
Yes position
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Multiplier
- 20.62x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
No position
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.12
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.35
No position
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.91
No position
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.83
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.7%
- Multiplier
- 27.40x
- User PnL
- -$4.29
No position
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6.21
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7.53
No position
Will the government shutdown end November 12?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$8.28
No position
Epstein disclosure bill/resolution enacted in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$11
No position
Will Israel allow independent journalists into Gaza by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$14.89
No position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
Ends Dec 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20.43
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ETDown 28% 3.54 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ETDown 39% 2.53 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ETUp 7% 16.65 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ETUp 6% 16.65 shares
- Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Yes 9.6% 1,036.41 shares
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?Yes 1.2% 395.38 shares
- Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Yes 14.9% 350 shares
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?Yes 1.3% 395.38 shares
- Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Yes 14.8% 338.79 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 11% 142.85 shares
- Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?No 10% 90.9 shares
- Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31?Yes 11% 34.48 shares