No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $559.53
- Potential payout
- $618.27
- Potential profit
- $58.74
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $59.53
Polymarket Trader
naysayer
0xbfd60036b965a704fe63fd79886d1cf2573aa888
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.13K
- Realized PnL
- $2.98K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Current value
- $424.6
- Potential payout
- $471.78
- Potential profit
- $47.18
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $44.6
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $345.34
- Potential payout
- $354.38
- Potential profit
- $9.04
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $45.34
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $112.63
- Potential payout
- $114.29
- Potential profit
- $1.66
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $12.63
No position
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $100.57
- Potential payout
- $113.64
- Potential profit
- $13.07
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.57
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $103.93
- Potential payout
- $112.36
- Potential profit
- $8.43
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $3.93
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $110.28
- Potential payout
- $111.11
- Potential profit
- $0.83
- User PnL
- $10.28
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $106.24
- Potential payout
- $107.53
- Potential profit
- $1.29
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $6.24
No position
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $72.92
- Potential payout
- $76.92
- Potential profit
- $4
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $12.92
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $62.85
- Potential payout
- $69.44
- Potential profit
- $6.6
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $12.85
No position
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $54.97
- Potential payout
- $55.3
- Potential profit
- $0.33
- User PnL
- $4.97
No position
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $16.79
- Potential payout
- $48.68
- Potential profit
- $31.89
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- -$13.88
Yes position
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $13.48
- Potential payout
- $37.97
- Potential profit
- $24.49
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$16.52
No position
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $15.37
- Potential payout
- $37.04
- Potential profit
- $21.67
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- -$14.63
No position
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $31.6
- Potential payout
- $36.33
- Potential profit
- $4.72
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $1.6
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $326.68
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $235
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $227.87
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $222.55
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $196.68
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $156.24
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $144.63
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3PM ET
Ends Oct 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $140.19
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $139.33
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123.53
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.24
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.97
Yes position
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.91
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $87.91
No position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.08
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $76.71
No position
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.64
Gold position
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.44
Yes position
Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.54
No position
Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.11
Yes position
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.7
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.95
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.84
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.37
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No 81% 37.04 shares
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes 79% 37.97 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 93% 107.53 shares
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?No 30% 12 shares
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?No 30% 12 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 87% 114.94 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 72% 69.44 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 87% 229.89 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 92% 217.39 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?No 90% 111.11 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 73% 136.99 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 82% 12.2 shares