No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $5.09K
- Potential payout
- $5.95K
- Potential profit
- $863.45
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $276.37
Polymarket Trader
gmacdonald
0xc04755f7cb7e99d49395d833db8946c5cc02c0e6
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.49K
- Realized PnL
- $4.21K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.4K
- Potential profit
- $4.4K
- User PnL
- -$2.68K
No position
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- User PnL
- -$990
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.99K
- Potential profit
- $2.99K
- User PnL
- -$2.29K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.09K
- Potential profit
- $2.09K
- User PnL
- -$1.87K
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 9?
Ends Mar 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.01K
- Potential profit
- $2.01K
- User PnL
- -$96.57
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.9%
- Current value
- $177.33
- Potential payout
- $1.38K
- Potential profit
- $1.2K
- Multiplier
- 7.78x
- User PnL
- $31.05
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $600
- User PnL
- -$323.92
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $599.7
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $0.3
- User PnL
- $24.9
No position
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $554.62
- Potential profit
- $554.62
- User PnL
- -$231.39
Y
Yes position
Will England be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $74.39
- Potential payout
- $551
- Potential profit
- $476.62
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $2.76
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $551
- Potential profit
- $551
- User PnL
- -$40.93
Yes position
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $542.53
- Potential profit
- $542.53
- User PnL
- -$136.52
Yes position
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $400
- User PnL
- -$70.55
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $250
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $150
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $14
Y
Yes position
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $47.55
- Potential payout
- $317
- Potential profit
- $269.45
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$9.41
Yes position
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.45 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $270.19
- Potential profit
- $270.19
- User PnL
- -$101.8
Yes position
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in January?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $219.95
- Potential profit
- $219.95
- User PnL
- -$22.88
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 78%
- Current value
- $156
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $44
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $2
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $91
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $109
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$53
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 3?
Ends Feb 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $199.99
- Potential profit
- $199.99
- User PnL
- -$18
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on February 4?
Ends Feb 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $199.99
- Potential profit
- $199.99
- User PnL
- -$8
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $182.61
- Potential profit
- $182.61
- User PnL
- -$58.44
Up position
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12?
Ends May 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $110.56
- Potential profit
- $110.56
- User PnL
- -$32.06
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $966.39
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $870.3
No position
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.25 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $445.18
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $384.2
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $379
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $290.76
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $176
No position
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $130.48
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.2
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.7
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.49
No position
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.10 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.26
No position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34
No position
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.10 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.6
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.8
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $31.44
Down position
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 23?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.35
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.13
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $24.9
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24
Yes position
Will Microchip Technology (MCHP) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.48
No position
Will Trump say "Stagflation" this week? (February 8)
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 59% 400 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 84% 1,400 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 72% 1,000 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 56% 800 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 55% 655.01 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 62% 600 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 62% 400 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 62% 1,200 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 90.9% 600 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 89.1% 90.94 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No 89.8% 103.82 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 74% 200 shares