No position
Will Beth Jones win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $5.03
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $0.53
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Polymarket Trader
thesciencecat
0xc04ac7554cc37494b86cec54f6acbf2aa0bbe3ae
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $97.94
- Realized PnL
- $14.34
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $5.56
- User PnL
- -$5
N
No position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $4.92
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $0.64
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 16?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $4.89
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $0.67
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $5.08
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $0.47
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 11?
Ends Jul 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $4.97
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $0.58
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
N
No position
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $5.17
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $0.39
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.17
N
No position
Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 70%
- Current value
- $3.89
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $1.67
- Multiplier
- 1.43x
- User PnL
- -$1.11
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $5.03
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $0.53
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $5.28
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $0.28
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.28
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $5.17
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $0.39
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
Will Robert Mitchell win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.7%
- Current value
- $4.59
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $0.96
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$0.41
N
No position
Will 200-224 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $5.17
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $0.39
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $5.56
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $5.35
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $0.21
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.6%
- Current value
- $4.11
- Potential payout
- $5.51
- Potential profit
- $1.4
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- -$0.89
N
No position
Will Kai Newkirk be the AZ-04 Democratic nominee?
Ends Jul 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $5.11
- Potential payout
- $5.49
- Potential profit
- $0.38
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $4.81
- Potential payout
- $5.49
- Potential profit
- $0.69
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.19
No position
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $5.14
- Potential payout
- $5.49
- Potential profit
- $0.36
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.14
N
No position
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $5.29
- Potential payout
- $5.49
- Potential profit
- $0.2
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.29
No position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $0.63
- Potential payout
- $5.49
- Potential profit
- $4.86
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$4.37
No position
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.46
- Potential profit
- $5.46
- User PnL
- -$5
N
No position
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.3%
- Current value
- $3.22
- Potential payout
- $5.43
- Potential profit
- $2.21
- Multiplier
- 1.69x
- User PnL
- -$1.78
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $5.11
- Potential payout
- $5.43
- Potential profit
- $0.33
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.11
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.09
No position
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.7
No position
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.67
No position
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.64
No position
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 6?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.52
No position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.52
No position
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.52
No position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.49
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.49
No position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.49
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.49
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?No 90% 5.56 shares
- Will Brian Hualde be the AZ-05 Democratic nominee?No 92.7% 5.39 shares
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?No 90% 5.56 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?No 91% 5.49 shares
- Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?No 94.4% 5.3 shares
- Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 14?No 94.8% 5.27 shares
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?No 93% 5.38 shares
- Will Kai Newkirk be the AZ-04 Democratic nominee?No 91% 5.49 shares
- Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 21?No 92% 5.43 shares
- Will Martin Schmierer win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election?No 97.8% 5.11 shares
- Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?No 98% 5.1 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 12?No 90% 5.56 shares