No position
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.81K
- Potential profit
- $4.81K
- User PnL
- -$1.89K
Polymarket Trader
fafafaffafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafa
0xc0eea70081e176f3548b409742d6e361c0fdec14
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $530.64
- Realized PnL
- $34.77K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.21K
- Potential profit
- $1.21K
- User PnL
- -$721.14
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $423.57
- Potential payout
- $1.19K
- Potential profit
- $769.59
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$134.85
No position
Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.9%
- Current value
- $107.07
- Potential payout
- $228.29
- Potential profit
- $121.22
- Multiplier
- 2.13x
- User PnL
- -$27.76
Yes position
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $128.54
- Potential profit
- $128.54
- User PnL
- -$46.21
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.72K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.61K
Yes position
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.38K
Yes position
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?
Ends Oct 15, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.88K
Yes position
Hamas lose power in Gaza before February?
Ends Jan 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.68K
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
Ends Sep 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.66K
No position
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.58K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.56K
Yes position
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend?
Ends Sep 9, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.4K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.39K
No position
US Government confirms what Mystery Drones are in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.34K
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33K
Yes position
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31K
Yes position
Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Nov 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2023- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.27K
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.12K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.09K
No position
US response to Iran’s drone attack by Jan 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.01K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $965.25
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Ends Jun 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $912.7
No position
Will Biden pardon Ross Ulbricht?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $878.11
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $831.72
Yes position
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $80m-90m opening weekend?
Ends Mar 1, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $829.96
Yes position
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $813.61
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 46.8% 1,193.16 shares
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No 66.8% 6,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 62.5% 1,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 64% 1,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 64.4% 1,500 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?No 62% 126.66 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?No 59.6% 1,079 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes 79.3% 2,488.6 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 58.6% 3,119.14 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes 75.2% 477.04 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes 74.9% 2,011.56 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 47% 3,119.14 shares