Speaker-NancyPelosi

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $585.64
Potential payout: $605.94
Potential profit: $20.3
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $11.38

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $301.17
Potential payout: $388.61
Potential profit: $87.44
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $1.35

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $8.51
Potential payout: $258.01
Potential profit: $249.5
Multiplier: 30.30x
User PnL: -$2.69

Yes position

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 59%
Current value: $130.38
Potential payout: $220.99
Potential profit: $90.61
Multiplier: 1.69x
User PnL: $14.54

Yes position

Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $30.25
Potential payout: $195.13
Potential profit: $164.88
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$7.91

Yes position

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $58.3
Potential payout: $155.48
Potential profit: $97.18
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: -$16.32

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $3.15
Potential payout: $140
Potential profit: $136.85
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $26.87
Potential payout: $131.06
Potential profit: $104.19
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$5.12

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 24.4%
Current value: $31.65
Potential payout: $129.96
Potential profit: $98.32
Multiplier: 4.11x
User PnL: -$6.89

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $34.79
Potential payout: $119.97
Potential profit: $85.18
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: $0.8

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 72.2%
Current value: $86.33
Potential payout: $119.57
Potential profit: $33.24
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: $5.59

Yes position

Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $6.49
Potential payout: $117.93
Potential profit: $111.44
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$1.54

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 8.2%
Current value: $9.37
Potential payout: $114.95
Potential profit: $105.58
Multiplier: 12.27x
User PnL: -$17.99

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $75.59
Potential payout: $111.99
Potential profit: $36.4
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $1.16

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $9.07
Potential payout: $106.65
Potential profit: $97.58
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$1.47

No position

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $86.97
Potential payout: $96.1
Potential profit: $9.13
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $2.65

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $14.88
Potential payout: $93.28
Potential profit: $78.4
Multiplier: 6.27x
User PnL: $0.63

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $42.03
Potential payout: $92.36
Potential profit: $50.34
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $4.2

Yes position

Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30?

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $12.8
Potential payout: $91.46
Potential profit: $78.65
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$6.23

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $73.41
Potential payout: $91.19
Potential profit: $17.78
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $2.99

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $89.77
Potential profit: $88.92
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$0.61

Yes position

Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $19.02
Potential payout: $82.69
Potential profit: $63.67
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: $0.91

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $81.75
Potential profit: $81.75
User PnL: -$36.8

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $76.97
Potential profit: $76.32
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$2.49

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 1?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $492.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $172.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $118.78

Yes position

Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $118.73

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 24?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.91

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 10?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $105.07

Yes position

Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.46

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 11?

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.24

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.23

No position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.73

Yes position

Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.41

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 27?

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.7

No position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 9?

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.28

No position

Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.63

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.79

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 12?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.44

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 6?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.11

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on March 27?

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.24

Yes position

Will FK Zenit win on 2026-05-10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.91

No position

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 72.5%
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $45.24

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 6?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.45

No position

Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.29

Team Falcons position

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.06

Yes position

Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?