No position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $135.02
- Potential payout
- $212.62
- Potential profit
- $77.61
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- -$4.98
Polymarket Trader
NotInventedHere-904
0xc14436eb265c451fc8f2cde8ecdef90001f7a83a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $204.57
- Realized PnL
- $759.35
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $71.81
- Potential profit
- $71.81
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $45.58
- Potential payout
- $67.52
- Potential profit
- $21.94
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- -$4.42
Yes position
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $23.98
- Potential payout
- $53.88
- Potential profit
- $29.9
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$6.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?
Ends Jun 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.67
Yes position
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.72
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.12
No position
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?
Ends Aug 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.96
No position
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.64
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $48.95
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.31
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.61
Yes position
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.14
No position
Israel strike on Iran on June 25?
Ends Jun 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.52
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.39
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.97
Yes position
Israel military response against Iran in October?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.72
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.02
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.5
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.03
Yes position
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.45
Yes position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $6.2
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.92
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.03
Yes position
Israel announces end of military operations against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.28
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.98
Yes position
Will Nate Silver correctly call the Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.24
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Yes 55.7% 53.88 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes 74.1% 67.52 shares
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No 65% 30.77 shares
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No 65% 76.92 shares
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No 66% 30.3 shares
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No 67% 74.63 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 40% 50 shares
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 36.2% 72.32 shares
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 27.7% 72.33 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes 20.9% 71.81 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Yes 76% 40.81 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes 33% 60.61 shares