AdolfCrittler

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $277.78
Potential profit: $277.78
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Body-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $205.68
Potential profit: $205.68
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $8.49
Potential payout: $158.6
Potential profit: $150.11
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$3.51

Yes position

Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?

Implied probability: 42%
Current value: $45.52
Potential payout: $108.38
Potential profit: $62.86
Multiplier: 2.38x
User PnL: -$1.88

Yes position

Will India strike Pakistan by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $92.85
Potential profit: $92.85
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $83.33
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $82.5
Potential profit: $82.5
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $69.69
Potential profit: $69.69
User PnL: -$19

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $62.5
User PnL: -$5

No position

U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $58.21
Potential profit: $58.21
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.66
Potential profit: $57.66
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will the US strike Somalia next?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.84
Potential profit: $41.84
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40.82
Potential profit: $40.82
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.36
Potential profit: $36.36
User PnL: -$4

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.33
Potential profit: $34.33
User PnL: -$8.92

Yes position

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $1.06
Potential payout: $34.31
Potential profit: $33.25
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: -$0.94

Yes position

Will Nicki Minaj attend the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32.7
Potential profit: $32.7
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Epstein client list released by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.27
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $30.98
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$4.73

Yes position

Another US bank failure by February 28?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $31.25
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.41
Potential profit: $29.41
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $1.59
Potential payout: $28.99
Potential profit: $27.39
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$18.41

Yes position

Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.57
Potential profit: $28.57
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $2.05
Potential payout: $27.27
Potential profit: $25.23
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$0.95

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.89

Yes position

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.99

Yes position

Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.5

No position

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $22.91

Yes position

Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.54

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.06

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.19

Yes position

US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.46

Yes position

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.38

Yes position

Will the US strike 3 countries in February 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.68

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.6

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.88

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.65

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.36

Nothing position

Nothing Ever Happens: March

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.17

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.12

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.11

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET