No position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $1.94K
- Potential payout
- $14.34K
- Potential profit
- $12.4K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$1.08K
Polymarket Trader
UpTight
0xc19d235d2209850967586464df4545d7abd3865e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $7.39K
- Realized PnL
- $34.26K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $1.98K
- Potential payout
- $11.33K
- Potential profit
- $9.35K
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$197.35
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.03K
- Potential profit
- $5.03K
- User PnL
- -$497.45
Yes position
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $1.04K
- Potential payout
- $4.6K
- Potential profit
- $3.57K
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- $56.84
Yes position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $704.39
- Potential payout
- $4.4K
- Potential profit
- $3.7K
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- -$304.77
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.2K
- Potential profit
- $4.2K
- User PnL
- -$633.29
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $157.5
- Potential payout
- $3.5K
- Potential profit
- $3.34K
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$59.49
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $143.32
- Potential payout
- $2.2K
- Potential profit
- $2.06K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$558.77
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $983.99
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $615.99
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $652
No position
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$26
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Current value
- $56.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $943.5
- Multiplier
- 17.70x
- User PnL
- $1.5
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $813.04
- Potential profit
- $813.04
- User PnL
- -$36.61
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $390.52
- Potential payout
- $634.98
- Potential profit
- $244.47
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $41.27
Yes position
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $443.97
- Potential profit
- $443.97
- User PnL
- -$83.29
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.95
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.55
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $93.04
- Potential profit
- $93.04
- User PnL
- -$5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.55K
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?
Ends Oct 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.36K
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.33K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.97K
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.77K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.67K
Yes position
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?
Ends Oct 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.47K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.4K
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.28K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.04K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $905.83
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $746.01
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $710.05
No position
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $665.17
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $634.82
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $612.95
Yes position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $552.16
Yes position
Yoon arrested by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $544.61
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $540.28
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $522
No position
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $512.67
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $512.09
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $510.38
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $448.72
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 55% 435 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 93.9% 1,582 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 5% 115.18 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 68.6% 7,800 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 29% 5 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No 8% 2,600 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 49.1% 9.82 shares
- Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 6% 500 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 16% 7,699.49 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 14% 30 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 14% 40 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Yes 40% 1,037.95 shares