Polymarket Trader

oranginapol

@oranginaura

0xc1c9bb686bf11ddeefe57ea1e4ec0ddb6cbb3e2f

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $4.55K
Realized PnL: $1.2K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 95.8%
Current value: $997.92
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $43.75
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$2.08

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.1%
Current value: $182.42
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $828.23
Multiplier: 5.54x
User PnL: -$17.58

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $961.54
Potential profit: $961.54
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 8.3%
Current value: $73.99
Potential payout: $896.83
Potential profit: $822.84
Multiplier: 12.12x
User PnL: -$26.01

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 12.3%
Current value: $87.5
Potential payout: $714.29
Potential profit: $626.79
Multiplier: 8.16x
User PnL: -$12.5

Yes position

Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $15.67
Potential payout: $681.47
Potential profit: $665.8
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: -$34.33

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 35.1%
Current value: $195.37
Potential payout: $557.4
Potential profit: $362.03
Multiplier: 2.85x
User PnL: $45.37

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $416.33
Potential payout: $517.18
Potential profit: $100.85
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $16.33

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 19.8%
Current value: $95.87
Potential payout: $485.44
Potential profit: $389.56
Multiplier: 5.06x
User PnL: -$4.13

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.4%
Current value: $98.27
Potential payout: $480.77
Potential profit: $382.5
Multiplier: 4.89x
User PnL: -$1.73

Lebanon position

Saudi Arabia vs. Lebanon

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $318.06
Potential payout: $405.17
Potential profit: $87.11
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $18.06

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 74.6%
Current value: $299.86
Potential payout: $401.85
Potential profit: $101.99
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: -$0.14

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.1%
Current value: $36.68
Potential payout: $364.96
Potential profit: $328.28
Multiplier: 9.95x
User PnL: -$13.32

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $198.25
Potential payout: $363.76
Potential profit: $165.51
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: -$1.75

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $297.08
Potential payout: $351.57
Potential profit: $54.49
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$2.92

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $124.19
Potential payout: $322.58
Potential profit: $198.39
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: $24.19

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $303.76
Potential payout: $321.44
Potential profit: $17.68
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $3.76

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 44.2%
Current value: $128.72
Potential payout: $291.55
Potential profit: $162.83
Multiplier: 2.27x
User PnL: $28.72

No position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $249.78
Potential payout: $256.84
Potential profit: $7.06
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?

Ends Nov 1, 2026

Implied probability: 35.6%
Current value: $83.86
Potential payout: $235.9
Potential profit: $152.04
Multiplier: 2.81x
User PnL: -$16.14

Yes position

Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $150.42
Potential payout: $233.21
Potential profit: $82.79
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $0.42

Yes position

Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $46.59
Potential payout: $227.27
Potential profit: $180.68
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$3.41

Yes position

Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $50.96
Potential payout: $192.31
Potential profit: $141.35
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $0.96

Yes position

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $101.77
Potential payout: $186.9
Potential profit: $85.13
Multiplier: 1.84x
User PnL: $1.77

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-07-01?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $168.07

Yes position

Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $135.19

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $119.53

Yes position

Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.67

No position

Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.19

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.49

Yes position

Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.64

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.7

Yes position

Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.06

Yes position

Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.15

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.96

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-07-01?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.89

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.1

Yes position

Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.39

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.36

Alex Molcan position

Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.46

Yes position

Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.72

No position

Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.65

Shintaro Mochizuki position

Wimbledon ATP: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Ethan Quinn

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.67

No position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.76

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.6

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.89

Frances Tiafoe position

Wimbledon ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Terence Atmane

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.22

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.14

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

No 99.2% 100.81 shares
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on July 2?

Yes 95% 10.53 shares
Saudi Arabia vs. Lebanon

Lebanon 62% 161.29 shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

No 87% 114.94 shares
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

No 96.4% 103.73 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Yes 88% 113.64 shares
Saudi Arabia vs. Lebanon

Lebanon 82% 243.88 shares
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

Yes 26% 192.31 shares
Wimbledon ATP: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Ethan Quinn

Shintaro Mochizuki 75% 66.67 shares
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

Yes 58% 86.21 shares
Will France win on 2026-07-04?

Yes 84% 119.05 shares
Wimbledon WTA: Barbora Krejcikova vs Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva 90% 55.56 shares