0xC1e51A0E0aB9f10e2D489B312e35ad8B220dc5df-1774574800875

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $25.66
Potential payout: $1.32K
Potential profit: $1.29K
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: $0.66

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $61.67
Potential payout: $913.58
Potential profit: $851.91
Multiplier: 14.81x
User PnL: -$8.33

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $33.12
Potential payout: $682.87
Potential profit: $649.75
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: $3.12

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $40.74
Potential payout: $294.12
Potential profit: $253.38
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: -$9.26

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 14.1%
Current value: $31.4
Potential payout: $222.06
Potential profit: $190.66
Multiplier: 7.07x
User PnL: $11.4

No position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $10.2
Potential payout: $120.03
Potential profit: $109.82
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$9.79

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $5.81
Potential payout: $105.58
Potential profit: $99.77
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$10.5

Yes position

Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $1.35
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $98.65
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$3.65

Yes position

Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $10.36
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $61.07
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $0.36

Yes position

Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $3.44
Potential payout: $71.01
Potential profit: $67.57
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: -$1.56

No position

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $16.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $33.75
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$3.75

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $24.22
Potential payout: $44.44
Potential profit: $20.22
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $4.22

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $1.46
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $38.54
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$18.54

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $8.27
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $30.19
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$1.73

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $33.22
Potential payout: $34.48
Potential profit: $1.26
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $13.22

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $26.32
Potential profit: $26.11
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$9.79

No position

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 86.7%
Current value: $20.88
Potential payout: $24.1
Potential profit: $3.22
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $0.88

No position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $20.81
Potential payout: $23.26
Potential profit: $2.44
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.81

No position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 85.9%
Current value: $19.29
Potential payout: $22.47
Potential profit: $3.18
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.71

No position

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.4%
Current value: $21.01
Potential payout: $22.27
Potential profit: $1.26
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $1.64

No position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $14.72
Potential payout: $15.41
Potential profit: $0.69
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.85

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $12.93
Potential payout: $13.58
Potential profit: $0.64
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $5.26
Potential payout: $6.08
Potential profit: $0.82
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $1

No position

Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $3.41
Potential payout: $3.42
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.23

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $256.48

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $236.75

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.07

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $197.17

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $185.55

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $143.38

Wright State Raiders position

Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $139.81

No position

Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $136.36

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.85

No position

Austria leading at halftime?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.47

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.58

Over position

France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $118.68

Over position

United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115.34

No position

Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.45

No position

Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.09

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.91

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.48

No position

Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.27

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $90.84

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 12?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.82

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.69

No position

Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.54

Bulls position

Bulls vs. Suns

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.26

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET