No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.5K
- Potential profit
- $22.5K
- User PnL
- -$978.71
Polymarket Trader
marinerhaz
0xc24f0686aae913fd32032ee03eb2db371891adf8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.69K
- Realized PnL
- $19.45K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.5K
- Potential profit
- $13.5K
- User PnL
- -$100.98
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $59.29
- Potential payout
- $11.86K
- Potential profit
- $11.8K
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$565.69
Yes position
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $325.83
- Potential payout
- $3.83K
- Potential profit
- $3.51K
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$274.16
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $285
- Potential payout
- $2.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.83K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$95
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.1%
- Current value
- $128.06
- Potential payout
- $2.1K
- Potential profit
- $1.97K
- Multiplier
- 16.39x
- User PnL
- -$368.77
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.6%
- Current value
- $391
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.61K
- Multiplier
- 5.12x
- User PnL
- $94
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $224
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $1.38K
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$110
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.07K
- Potential profit
- $1.07K
- User PnL
- -$96.36
Yes position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.03K
- Potential profit
- $1.03K
- User PnL
- -$400
Yes position
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $145.74
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $859.38
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$115.38
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$150
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$110
Yes position
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17%
- Current value
- $170
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $830
- Multiplier
- 5.88x
- User PnL
- -$0
Yes position
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $75
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $924.99
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$65
Yes position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $95
- Potential payout
- $999.98
- Potential profit
- $904.99
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$55
Yes position
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $28.33
- Potential payout
- $666.68
- Potential profit
- $638.35
- Multiplier
- 23.53x
- User PnL
- -$189.92
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 37.7%
- Current value
- $224.78
- Potential payout
- $597.01
- Potential profit
- $372.24
- Multiplier
- 2.66x
- User PnL
- $24.78
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$105
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $499.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $0.25
- User PnL
- $343.45
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $450
- Potential profit
- $450
- User PnL
- -$108
Yes position
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $34.26
- Potential payout
- $403
- Potential profit
- $368.75
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$34.26
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $361.51
- Potential profit
- $361.51
- User PnL
- -$2.53
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.01K
Yes position
Israel military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.79K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.4K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.43K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $900.9
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $880
Yes position
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $813.62
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $701
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $700
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $433.69
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $274.55
Yes position
Will MicroStrategy hold 630k+ BTC by August 31?
Ends Sep 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $250.07
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $229.29
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- $202.01
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.16
No position
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?
Ends Jul 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.66
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.96
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $37.5
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $33.88
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.17
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.89
No position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $31.23
Yes position
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 12-18?
Ends Aug 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.17
No position
US strikes Iraq by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes 10% 100 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?Yes 24.1% 499.99 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 31.3% 500 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?Yes 26% 499.99 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 22% 639.9 shares
- Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?Yes 14% 50 shares
- Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Yes 15% 252.4 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 22% 2,244.58 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 13% 2,244.58 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 18% 1,000 shares
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 14.9% 361.03 shares
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 14.8% 454.06 shares