No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 93.9%
- Current value
- $58.22
- Potential payout
- $62
- Potential profit
- $3.78
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$2.36
Polymarket Trader
longpole
0xc281c12d2e111037e1e64b03c91dd0ac04a02ae2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $283.28
- Realized PnL
- $9.97
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 20
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $55.89
- Potential payout
- $57
- Potential profit
- $1.11
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.48
No position
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $54.04
- Potential payout
- $57
- Potential profit
- $2.96
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$1.65
No position
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Current value
- $54.09
- Potential payout
- $57
- Potential profit
- $2.91
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.57
No position
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Current value
- $49.67
- Potential payout
- $51
- Potential profit
- $1.33
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.97
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $11.37
- Potential payout
- $11.6
- Potential profit
- $0.23
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.72
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06
No position
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $1.04
No position
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.04
No position
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.95
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.75
No position
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.59
No position
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $0.57
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.57
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.51
Yes position
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
No position
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Ends Mar 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.24
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 96.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.07
Yes position
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 98%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?No 96.6% 22.24 shares