Yes position
Grok 4.4 released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $15.51
- Potential payout
- $553.9
- Potential profit
- $538.39
- Multiplier
- 35.71x
- User PnL
- $5.31
Polymarket Trader
cebi
0xc2a823f178a51e5c8fe84f16464044868bb0f67d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $15.51
- Realized PnL
- -$13.07
- Win rate
- 28.6%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 7
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $396.52
- Potential profit
- $396.52
- User PnL
- -$12.35
Yes position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $368.33
- Potential profit
- $368.33
- User PnL
- -$49.9
Yes position
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $293.72
- Potential profit
- $293.72
- User PnL
- -$6.14
Yes position
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 24, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $248.01
- Potential profit
- $248.01
- User PnL
- -$19.72
Yes position
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $33.33
- User PnL
- -$3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.72
Yes position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?
Ends Dec 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.01
Yes position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 25, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.23
Yes position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 12?
Ends Dec 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.67
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.88
No position
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$11.93
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Grok 4.4 released by June 30?Yes 0.9% 457.3 shares
- Grok 4.4 released by June 30?Yes 7% 10 shares
- Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Yes 9% 33.33 shares
- Grok 4.4 released by June 30?Yes 6% 6.6 shares
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes 0.1% 62.15 shares
- Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?No 1.5% 168.84 shares
- Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?No 8.5% 168.84 shares
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 25, 2026?Yes 0.8% 214.64 shares
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 25, 2026?Yes 0.9% 214.64 shares
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 23, 2026?Yes 2.4% 100.01 shares
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 23, 2026?Yes 2% 180 shares
- Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 24, 2026?Yes 8.9% 197.47 shares