Polymarket Trader

dreivierteljaeger

0xc2e98eb992cf48744c9761797497fada7b64e288

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $37.05K
Realized PnL: $21.55K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $28.46K
Potential payout: $31.1K
Potential profit: $2.64K
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.83K

Yes position

Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.19K
Potential profit: $7.19K
User PnL: -$1K

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $3.6K
Potential payout: $4.8K
Potential profit: $1.2K
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: -$105.98

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $1.87K
Potential payout: $3.19K
Potential profit: $1.32K
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $25.95

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.96K
Potential profit: $2.96K
User PnL: -$49

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $939.94
Potential payout: $1.98K
Potential profit: $1.04K
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$210.06

Yes position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.2K
User PnL: -$434.85

Yes position

Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $615
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $385
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 79.8%
Current value: $587.19
Potential payout: $736.29
Potential profit: $149.1
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $28.39

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $381
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $219
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $314.99
Potential payout: $599.99
Potential profit: $285
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$338

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $396.88
Potential profit: $396.88
User PnL: -$307

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $341.83
Potential profit: $341.83
User PnL: -$275

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $234.12
Potential profit: $234.12
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$118

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$154

Yes position

Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$190

Yes position

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $177
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $23
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $192.31
Potential profit: $192.31
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 58%
Current value: $109.56
Potential payout: $188.89
Potential profit: $79.33
Multiplier: 1.72x
User PnL: -$0.44

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $185.19
Potential profit: $185.19
User PnL: -$100

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $177.61
Potential profit: $177.61
User PnL: -$125

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $174.19
Potential profit: $174.19
User PnL: -$150

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.22K

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.48K

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.56K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $988.06

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $765.93

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $721.66

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $522.88

Yes position

Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $463.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $447.01

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.7%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $384.37

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $295.51

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $274.12

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $270.03

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $259.79

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET

Ends Feb 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $240.49

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 4?

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.73

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $228.74

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $219.41

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $214.68

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $209.65

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $191.72

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $180.62

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $171.57

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 60% 166.67 shares
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?

Yes 61% 163.93 shares
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 65% 100 shares
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 91% 300 shares
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 81% 500 shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

No 0.4% 1,000 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Yes 31% 790.9 shares
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

No 79% 200 shares
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

No 79% 200 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Yes 58% 500 shares
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?

Yes 62% 1,000 shares
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?

Yes 12% 10 shares