Polymarket Trader

loinvest

0xc34a4af2e3a818fdcdfaa7b5b140eca017ae6007

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $8.6K
Realized PnL: $12.95K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $195
Potential payout: $30K
Potential profit: $29.8K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$67.74

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $3.31K
Potential payout: $3.35K
Potential profit: $36.84
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $79.89

No position

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $1.5K
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $3.75
User PnL: $111.25

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $1.15K
User PnL: -$976.73

No position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $855
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $145
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $16.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $983.5
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$12.5

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $186.75
Potential payout: $957.69
Potential profit: $770.94
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$181.49

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $647.72
Potential payout: $649.99
Potential profit: $2.28
User PnL: $42.43

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $497.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $2.75
User PnL: $26.25

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $498.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $1.25
User PnL: $127.95

No position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $282
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $118
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $50

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $389
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $11
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $21

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $20.21
Potential payout: $310.9
Potential profit: $290.69
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$75.75

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $58.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $241.5
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$92.25

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $150.72
Potential profit: $149.89
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$31.85

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $142.18
Potential payout: $150.45
Potential profit: $8.27
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $36.86

No position

Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $44.99
Potential profit: $44.99
User PnL: -$4.65

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Israel military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.48K

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28K

No position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend presidential inauguration?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $742.69

Yes position

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $681.5

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $633.12

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $572.65

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $551.08

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Ahmed Al Shara in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $524.81

No position

Strike on Israel's Dimonah nuclear base in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $497.52

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $494.91

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $458

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in April 2025?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $451.37

No position

U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $445.91

No position

Assad public appearance before 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $442.41

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $412.61

No position

Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $406.97

Yes position

Israel military action against Iran by Friday?

Ends Jun 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $385.27

No position

Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $380.15

No position

Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $379.54

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $368.17

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $363.56

Alaska position

Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $349.62

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $330.57

No position

Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $325.04

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.8% 10,000 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Yes 39% 25 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 79% 20 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 79% 30 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 79% 25 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Yes 40% 25 shares
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

No 92% 300 shares
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

No 92% 100 shares
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

No 35.8% 50 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 93.1% 276.44 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 93% 212.7 shares
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

No 37.7% 99.99 shares