mdrzn - 30693

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $47.94
Potential payout: $2.04K
Potential profit: $1.99K
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$0.97

Yes position

Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Implied probability: 14.4%
Current value: $259.2
Potential payout: $1.8K
Potential profit: $1.54K
Multiplier: 6.94x
User PnL: $228.6

Gianmarco Ferrari position

Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.37K
Potential profit: $1.37K
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $2.69
Potential payout: $769.23
Potential profit: $766.54
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$7.31

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $434.78
Potential profit: $434.78
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Implied probability: 60.9%
Current value: $228.15
Potential payout: $374.94
Potential profit: $146.79
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: $24.95

Yes position

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 78%
Current value: $280.04
Potential payout: $359.02
Potential profit: $78.99
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $137.59

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $133.19
Potential payout: $292.73
Potential profit: $159.54
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $35.19

Yes position

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $39.29
Potential payout: $238.1
Potential profit: $198.81
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$10.71

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $8
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $192
Multiplier: 25.00x
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $14.7
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $185.3
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$5.8

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $192.31
Potential profit: $192.31
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $3.28
Potential payout: $187.69
Potential profit: $184.41
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$7.25

No position

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $119.7
Potential payout: $140
Potential profit: $20.3
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $17.5

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $138.46
Potential profit: $138.46
User PnL: -$31

Yes position

Deel IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $6.13
Potential payout: $136.32
Potential profit: $130.18
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$7.67

Yes position

Will Anthropic's public ticker be $AAI?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.84
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $119.16
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$4.16

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $13.2
Potential payout: $112.36
Potential profit: $99.16
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: $3.2

Yes position

Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $110
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $7.23
Potential payout: $108.7
Potential profit: $101.47
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$2.77

Yes position

Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANAI?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $9.63
Potential payout: $101.34
Potential profit: $91.71
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $3.79

Yes position

Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $3.25
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $96.75
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$1.75

No position

Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $27.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $72.5
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will "Xi" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$7

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $900.32

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $261.92

Yes position

Will $MELANIA FDV be $1-3b on Friday?

Ends Jan 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190.9

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $165

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $164.04

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $150.45

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?

Ends Feb 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $139.23

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $128.37

Yes position

Will NASA estimate a 3% chance of asteroid hitting Earth?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $114.03

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.77

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $110.37

No position

Will Trump issue an executive order on February 21?

Ends Feb 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $105.86

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.71

Yes position

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.99

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.33

No position

Kamala and Trump shake hands at inauguration?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $81

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.99

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 6PM ET

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.46

Yes position

Will Stuttgart beat Borussia Dortmund?

Ends Feb 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.53

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.35

Yes position

GPT-5.4 released by March 9?