kanshifu

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.89
Potential payout: $1.78K
Potential profit: $1.78K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$42.29

Yes position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $62.4
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.14K
Multiplier: 19.23x
User PnL: -$70.93

Yes position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $1.06K
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $138
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $928.67

Yes position

Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $40.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $959.5
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$39.5

Yes position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?

Implied probability: 11.3%
Current value: $56.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $443.75
Multiplier: 8.89x
User PnL: -$88.75

Yes position

Will Elizabeth Warren vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 9.3%
Current value: $37
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $363
Multiplier: 10.81x
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $302.81
Potential payout: $338.33
Potential profit: $35.53
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $17.8

Yes position

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $27.04
Potential payout: $338
Potential profit: $310.96
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$24.53

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $1.3
Potential payout: $235.72
Potential profit: $234.42
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$40.27

Yes position

Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $187.36
Potential profit: $187.36
User PnL: -$20.82

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $163.42
Potential payout: $168.91
Potential profit: $5.49
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $6.33

Yes position

Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $147.48
Potential profit: $147.48
User PnL: -$16.39

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $2.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $97.25
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$4.25

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $69.97
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$18.17

No position

Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61.5
Potential profit: $61.5
User PnL: -$1.34

No position

Will Silver (SI) settle over $120 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $59.97
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $18.28

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.06
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $59.94
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$21.9

Yes position

Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $0.81
Potential payout: $43.6
Potential profit: $42.79
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$19.55

No position

Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $29.96
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $0.05
User PnL: $6.58

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.99
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$5.98

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.66K

Yes position

Will 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.49K

No position

Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Outstanding Story-Rich Game in the 2025 Steam Awards?

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.44K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $983.55

No position

Will Lebron announce final season Tuesday?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $956.37

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $924.94

Yes position

Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?

Ends Oct 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $707.03

No position

Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $636.08

No position

Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?

Ends Sep 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $593.71

Yes position

Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $565.29

No position

Will Sydney Sweeney be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $531.22

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $528.86

Yes position

Will 'Arc Raiders' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $507.96

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $450.45

No position

Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary 1?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $441.01

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $404.63

Yes position

Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $402.17

Yes position

Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $395.51

No position

Skye Valadez confirmed perp?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $392.21

Yes position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of November?

Ends Nov 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $390.16

Yes position

Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $385.23

No position

Will Sydney Sweeney rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $370

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?