No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.01K
- Potential profit
- $16.01K
- User PnL
- -$1.43K
Polymarket Trader
notap
0xc48073ecd03f4651aaf405fe560d4ed263b78d0d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $15.24K
- Realized PnL
- $285.19
- Win rate
- 46.7%
- Open positions
- 20
- Closed positions
- 15
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $5.55K
- Potential payout
- $5.55K
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1.1K
No position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52%
- Current value
- $781.27
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $721.17
- Multiplier
- 1.92x
- User PnL
- -$170.73
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $1.32K
- Potential payout
- $1.46K
- Potential profit
- $138.51
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $367.46
No position
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $1.32K
- Potential payout
- $1.33K
- Potential profit
- $3.98
- User PnL
- $369.14
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $1.23K
- Potential payout
- $1.24K
- Potential profit
- $3.09
- User PnL
- $281.27
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.11K
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $162.4
No position
US strike on Colombia by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.09K
- Potential payout
- $1.09K
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $138.49
Yes position
Will the Doomsday Clock move by ten seconds or more?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.06K
- Potential profit
- $1.06K
- User PnL
- -$361
Yes position
Will Baidu have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.03K
- Potential profit
- $1.03K
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $865.18
- Potential profit
- $865.18
- User PnL
- -$620.31
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $814.96
- Potential payout
- $819.46
- Potential profit
- $4.51
- User PnL
- $243.96
No position
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $799.88
- Potential profit
- $799.88
- User PnL
- -$570.73
No position
Will Trump ban institutional investor single-family home purchases?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $799.48
- Potential profit
- $799.48
- User PnL
- -$571
No position
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $637.16
- Potential payout
- $728.18
- Potential profit
- $91.02
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $66.16
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $713.26
- Potential payout
- $719.38
- Potential profit
- $6.11
- User PnL
- $142.26
Yes position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $142.32
- Potential payout
- $694.23
- Potential profit
- $551.91
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$218.68
No position
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $621.14
- Potential profit
- $621.14
- User PnL
- -$361
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $552.17
- Potential profit
- $552.17
- User PnL
- -$381
No position
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $522.87
- Potential payout
- $524.18
- Potential profit
- $1.31
- User PnL
- $160.97
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $187.06
No position
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $185.23
Yes position
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.35
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.09
No position
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $33.65
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.63
No position
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 25, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.32
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.81
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- -$8.65
Yes position
Will Procter & Gamble (PG) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Jan 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$20.35
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$21.49
No position
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$30.99
Yes position
Will Bank First (BFC) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$31.18
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$111.89
Yes position
Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$127.79
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No 9.4% 10,609.09 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No 8.9% 1,719.1 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No 7.4% 3,502.39 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No 7.4% 175.5 shares
- US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?No 65% 25 shares
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 25, 2026?No 63.1% 600.9 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?No 85% 106.27 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?No 80.1% 1,871.59 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?No 78% 2,564.1 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?No 50.6% 1,870.36 shares
- Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?No 62.7% 526.7 shares
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 31, 2026?No 77.7% 507.98 shares