Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $101.25
- Potential payout
- $750
- Potential profit
- $648.75
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$52.75
Polymarket Trader
meklaren
0xc4e12d1921aacbc65557951ca0c6c7a0cdaa5c0c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $207.5
- Realized PnL
- $937.1
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $20.1
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $579.9
- Multiplier
- 29.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.7
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $24.3
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $575.7
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$6.7
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $576.9
- Potential profit
- $576.9
- User PnL
- -$26.72
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $17.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $82.5
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $35.1
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $24.9
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $2.1
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $9.25
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.75
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $193.33
Yes position
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $159.8
No position
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.07
Yes position
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.2
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.84
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.52
Yes position
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Multiplier
- 24.39x
- User PnL
- $36.21
Yes position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $29.48
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.4
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Multiplier
- 18.02x
- User PnL
- $14.03
Yes position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.37
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.45
Yes position
Will the government shutdown end November 13?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.2
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- $10.2
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.5
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- $8.5
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.02
No position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?
Ends Dec 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.9
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6
Yes position
Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?
Ends Jan 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.7
Yes position
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.4
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 6.3% 200 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 5.5% 85 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 19% 150 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 19% 100 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 1.8% 93.69 shares
- Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?Yes 0.2% 524.99 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Yes 0.5% 10 shares
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?No 0.2% 500 shares
- Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?Yes 2.1% 200 shares
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?No 99.9% 50 shares
- Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?No 27.7% 15 shares
- Will Trump visit China by April 30?No 69% 37.5 shares