No position
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $207.25K
- Potential profit
- $207.25K
- User PnL
- -$784.03
Polymarket Trader
Herald-PS
0xc5c9f4e998ddeb0818ebf735f8f8b85417b98faf
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $395.43
- Realized PnL
- $90.74
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 17
- Closed positions
- 2
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.65K
- Potential profit
- $1.65K
- User PnL
- -$23.1
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.39K
- Potential profit
- $1.39K
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.35K
- Potential profit
- $1.35K
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
US confirms Havana Syndrome–causing device by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.08K
- Potential profit
- $1.08K
- User PnL
- -$60
Yes position
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.07K
- Potential profit
- $1.07K
- User PnL
- -$19.98
Yes position
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $939.1
- Potential profit
- $939.1
- User PnL
- -$223.24
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Current value
- $19.25
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $480.74
- Multiplier
- 25.97x
- User PnL
- -$30.75
Yes position
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30%
- Current value
- $146.96
- Potential payout
- $489.88
- Potential profit
- $342.91
- Multiplier
- 3.33x
- User PnL
- -$11.39
Yes position
Nipah virus in US by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $399.98
- Potential profit
- $399.98
- User PnL
- -$12
Yes position
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 18 be between 90 and 95?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $311.02
- Potential profit
- $311.02
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$96
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $9.21
- Potential payout
- $224.72
- Potential profit
- $215.51
- Multiplier
- 24.39x
- User PnL
- -$10.79
Yes position
Natural Disaster in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $49
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $151
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2027- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $161
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $39
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $105
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 16?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.82
- Potential profit
- $12.82
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $10
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.73
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.4
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.34
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Named storm forms before hurricane season?Yes 18.7% 24.6 shares
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 16?Yes 39% 12.82 shares
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16?Yes 28% 17.14 shares
- Named storm forms before hurricane season?Yes 18.6% 12.26 shares
- Named storm forms before hurricane season?Yes 19.2% 39.26 shares
- Named storm forms before hurricane season?Yes 18.5% 20.67 shares
- Named storm forms before hurricane season?Yes 2.7% 182.83 shares
- Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?Yes 36% 21.19 shares
- Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?Yes 36% 13.89 shares
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 18 be between 90 and 95?Yes 1.6% 311.02 shares
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Yes 8.9% 224.72 shares
- Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?Yes 32% 215.73 shares