Polymarket Trader

varreddor

0xc5e40587b66921e1a4e268a6b9211d10f6b74be8

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $279.34
Realized PnL: $848.44
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $10.12
Potential payout: $506
Potential profit: $495.88
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: -$4.93

Yes position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $62.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $437.5
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$57.5

Yes position

Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $6
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $394
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $2.13
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $247.88
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 13.8%
Current value: $13.75
Potential payout: $100.01
Potential profit: $86.26
Multiplier: 7.27x
User PnL: $4.15

Yes position

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $20.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $79.5
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $6.5

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 33.4%
Current value: $33.35
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $66.65
Multiplier: 3.00x
User PnL: $16.95

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.1%
Current value: $23.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $76.95
Multiplier: 4.34x
User PnL: $2.55

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $6.65
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $93.35
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$2.35

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $5.35
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $94.65
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$3.45

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $3.15
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $96.85
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.8%
Current value: $10.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $89.25
Multiplier: 9.30x
User PnL: $3.75

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$5.9

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $41.5
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $58.49
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $24.5

No position

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81.1%
Current value: $40.55
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $9.45
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $5.55

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 89.5%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $63

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.02

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.4

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.2

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46

No position

U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.9

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.4

No position

Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $35.85

No position

Will the government shutdown end November 12?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.46

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $30.3

Yes position

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.08

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.27

Yes position

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $27

Yes position

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.7

No position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26

No position

Will Keir Starmer say "United Kingdom" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Ends Nov 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.2

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $25

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24

No position

Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.37

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Yes position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.4%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $19.8

Yes position

Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 1%
Multiplier: 100.00x
User PnL: $18.5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

No 87% 200 shares
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 2.4% 100 shares
Will Nuno Mendes be in Portugal's Starting 11?

No 2.7% 50 shares
Will Diogo Costa be in Portugal's Starting 11?

Yes 94.8% 101.95 shares
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11?

No 4.2% 50 shares
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 4% 126 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes 16% 99.98 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

No 50.2% 100 shares
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes 77% 100 shares
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?

Yes 60% 8 shares
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?

No 3.3% 100 shares
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Yes 22% 99.99 shares