Polymarket Trader

HowToBasic

@don_dealer61123

0xc6393f5177345cf7b9d9f3fbb782fd72da00c5a2

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $29.94K
Realized PnL: $54.85K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 18
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $22.67K
Potential payout: $22.68K
Potential profit: $11.34
User PnL: $1.09K

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.92K
Potential profit: $5.92K
User PnL: -$2.57K

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $4.51K
Potential payout: $4.73K
Potential profit: $224.8
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$137.06

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $1.52K
Potential payout: $1.57K
Potential profit: $50.98
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $121.56

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $452.88
Potential payout: $559.11
Potential profit: $106.23
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$7.12

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 91.1%
Current value: $333.34
Potential payout: $365.91
Potential profit: $32.57
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $11.34

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $110
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $15
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $5

No position

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $35.4
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $84.6
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$9

No position

No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 82.4%
Current value: $92.58
Potential payout: $112.36
Potential profit: $19.78
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$7.42

No position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $103.12
Potential payout: $107.53
Potential profit: $4.41
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $3.12

No position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 81.6%
Current value: $48.54
Potential payout: $59.52
Potential profit: $10.98
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$1.46

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$24.28

Under position

England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $30.09
Potential payout: $39.33
Potential profit: $9.24
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.1%
Current value: $26.41
Potential payout: $34.7
Potential profit: $8.29
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $3.61

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 80.4%
Current value: $19.28
Potential payout: $24
Potential profit: $4.72
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$1.84

Yibing Wu position

Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.81
Potential profit: $23.81
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.47
Potential profit: $7.47
User PnL: -$2.69

Yes position

Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $1.78
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $3.23
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$0.02

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.79K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.27K

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.52K

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $3.61K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.13K

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.64K

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.51K

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5K

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.47K

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.2K

Jarry position

Wimbledon: Jarry vs. Fonseca

Ends Jul 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.01K

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.4K

No position

US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19K

No position

Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?

Ends Sep 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19K

No position

US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.17K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02K

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $933.69

No position

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $878.32

No position

100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $878.26

No position

Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $728.95

No position

Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $727.03

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $719.81

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $701.55

No position

X Money launch in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $665.6

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Yes 99.9% 500 shares
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5

Under 76% 39.33 shares
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 91% 26.14 shares
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?

No 89% 112.36 shares
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Yes 86% 125 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

No 92.9% 1,075.84 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Yes 99.9% 1,000 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

No 90.5% 155.86 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

No 51.2% 274.43 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

No 76% 336.84 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Yes 24% 144.44 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

No 36.4% 274.43 shares