Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.75M
- Potential profit
- $1.75M
- User PnL
- -$378.48K
Polymarket Trader
Erasmus.
0xc6587b11a2209e46dfe3928b31c5514a8e33b784
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.73M
- Realized PnL
- $2.62M
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $688.65K
- Potential payout
- $689.68K
- Potential profit
- $1.03K
- User PnL
- $396.07K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $573.69K
- Potential profit
- $573.69K
- User PnL
- -$37.71K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $70.75K
- Potential payout
- $404.31K
- Potential profit
- $333.56K
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$106.08K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $352.88K
- Potential payout
- $353.41K
- Potential profit
- $530.12
- User PnL
- $251.88K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $326.52K
- Potential profit
- $326.52K
- User PnL
- -$55.37K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $324.45K
- Potential profit
- $324.45K
- User PnL
- -$51.21K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $258.08K
- Potential payout
- $285.17K
- Potential profit
- $27.09K
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $46.49K
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $219.66K
- Potential profit
- $219.66K
- User PnL
- -$4.61K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $203.77K
- Potential profit
- $203.77K
- User PnL
- -$33.59K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $163.23K
- Potential payout
- $164.13K
- Potential profit
- $902.71
- User PnL
- $22.21K
Yes position
Will the government shutdown end November 12?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $132.99K
- Potential profit
- $132.99K
- User PnL
- -$56.09K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100K
- Potential profit
- $100K
- User PnL
- -$11.56K
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $71.36K
- Potential payout
- $74.14K
- Potential profit
- $2.78K
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $4.28K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $30.95K
- Potential payout
- $54.79K
- Potential profit
- $23.84K
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- $4.83K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $45.51K
- Potential payout
- $52.01K
- Potential profit
- $6.5K
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $7.57K
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $46.63K
- Potential profit
- $46.63K
- User PnL
- -$16.11K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $43.5K
- Potential profit
- $43.5K
- User PnL
- -$516.05
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $39.3K
- Potential profit
- $39.3K
- User PnL
- -$628.84
Yes position
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $34.98K
- Potential profit
- $34.98K
- User PnL
- -$4.33K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.75K
- Potential profit
- $33.75K
- User PnL
- -$286.23
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.31K
- Potential profit
- $32.31K
- User PnL
- -$20.03K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $29.9K
- Potential payout
- $29.94K
- Potential profit
- $44.92
- User PnL
- $16.73K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $20.5K
- Potential payout
- $27.16K
- Potential profit
- $6.65K
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- -$1.96K
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Was Milei hacked?
Ends Feb 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $230K
Yes position
Will Biden finish his term?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $200.33K
Yes position
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $173.65K
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $164.54K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $139.77K
No position
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $133.76K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $131.45K
No position
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $130.52K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $106.9K
No position
Yoon reinstated as President before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $105.29K
No position
Was Trump hacked?
Ends Jan 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.02K
Yes position
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.47K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.58K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.23K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.08K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $82.85K
Yes position
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.74K
No position
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.41K
Yes position
US government shutdown by October 1?
Ends Oct 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.24K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.23K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.44K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?
Ends Jan 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.85K
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.01K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.16K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 72% 10,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 72% 10,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 70% 5,736.99 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 69.6% 8,220.97 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 26.6% 95,054.77 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 28.4% 7,860.5 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 29% 8,176.64 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 65% 6,419.21 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 63.3% 8,481.19 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 27.6% 8,291.54 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 58.9% 19,644.61 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 46.4% 19,094.5 shares