badkidsart

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $93.71
Potential payout: $3.41K
Potential profit: $3.31K
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$6.29

Yes position

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $45.24
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $1.1K
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: -$4.75

Yes position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $97.32
Potential payout: $926.89
Potential profit: $829.56
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$102.68

Yes position

Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $45.83
Potential payout: $833.33
Potential profit: $787.5
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$54.17

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 20.7%
Current value: $155.85
Potential payout: $754.72
Potential profit: $598.87
Multiplier: 4.84x
User PnL: -$44.15

No position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $129.77
Potential payout: $701.44
Potential profit: $571.67
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$70.23

Yes position

No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $98.27
Potential payout: $578.06
Potential profit: $479.79
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$1.73

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $502.78
Potential payout: $555.56
Potential profit: $52.78
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $2.78

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 15.1%
Current value: $75.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $424.75
Multiplier: 6.64x
User PnL: -$24.75

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.3%
Current value: $396.81
Potential payout: $425.53
Potential profit: $28.72
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$3.19

No position

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $402.13
Potential payout: $425.53
Potential profit: $23.4
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $2.13

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $118.71
Potential payout: $416.67
Potential profit: $297.96
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $18.71

Yes position

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $69.19
Potential payout: $373.99
Potential profit: $304.8
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$30.81

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 20.1%
Current value: $69.14
Potential payout: $344.83
Potential profit: $275.69
Multiplier: 4.99x
User PnL: -$30.86

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $307.35
Potential payout: $312.83
Potential profit: $5.47
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $7.35

No position

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $76.16
Potential payout: $304.64
Potential profit: $228.48
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: -$123.84

Yes position

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $54.55
Potential payout: $303.03
Potential profit: $248.48
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$45.45

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $113.66
Potential payout: $287.74
Potential profit: $174.08
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $13.66

Yes position

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $96.16
Potential payout: $270.87
Potential profit: $174.71
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$3.84

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19.3%
Current value: $52.03
Potential payout: $270.27
Potential profit: $218.24
Multiplier: 5.19x
User PnL: $2.03

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 38.4%
Current value: $98.59
Potential payout: $257.07
Potential profit: $158.48
Multiplier: 2.61x
User PnL: -$1.41

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $60.68
Potential payout: $247.69
Potential profit: $187.01
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $10.68

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $208.05
Potential payout: $229.89
Potential profit: $21.84
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $8.05

No position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 93.4%
Current value: $209.76
Potential payout: $224.7
Potential profit: $14.94
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $9.76

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Macron out in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.93K

Yes position

Lecornu out as French PM by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $700.31

Yes position

Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $309.17

No position

Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31?

Ends Dec 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $200.44

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $194.12

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.09

Yes position

Bank of England rate cut in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.58

No position

French election called by October 17?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.75

No position

Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.81

No position

Stripe IPO in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.08

$80k position

Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.78

No position

Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.5

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.39

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.99

No position

Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.94

Yes position

Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.36

No position

Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.84

No position

Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.78

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.86

No position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.3

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.65

No position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.93

No position

Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.17

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?