Yes position
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $449.79
- Potential payout
- $526.07
- Potential profit
- $76.28
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$20.21
Polymarket Trader
Luke-skywalker
0xc6d2dc0a633a8ab5288489b5c385f4bed18f395b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $503.87
- Realized PnL
- $199.57
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Solana reach $100 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $224.51
- Potential profit
- $224.51
- User PnL
- -$130
Yes position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.99
- Potential profit
- $22.99
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.22
- Potential profit
- $22.22
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.93
- Potential profit
- $17.93
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71%
- Current value
- $11.54
- Potential payout
- $16.25
- Potential profit
- $4.71
- Multiplier
- 1.41x
- User PnL
- $1.54
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 89%
- Current value
- $12.73
- Potential payout
- $14.3
- Potential profit
- $1.57
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.24
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.57
- Potential profit
- $13.57
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.37
- Potential profit
- $13.37
- User PnL
- -$9.9
Yes position
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.96
- Potential profit
- $10.96
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
TikTok sale announced by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.31
- Potential profit
- $10.31
- User PnL
- -$2
150k position
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.93
- Potential profit
- $7.93
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.67
- Potential profit
- $6.67
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.59
- Potential profit
- $6.59
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.43
- Potential profit
- $6.43
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 66%
- Current value
- $4.18
- Potential payout
- $6.33
- Potential profit
- $2.15
- Multiplier
- 1.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.82
Yes position
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.25
- Potential profit
- $6.25
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.2%
- Current value
- $5.53
- Potential payout
- $5.75
- Potential profit
- $0.22
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.53
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $5.05
- Potential payout
- $5.38
- Potential profit
- $0.32
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $5.06
- Potential payout
- $5.34
- Potential profit
- $0.28
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.06
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Hawaii governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $4.97
- Potential payout
- $5.32
- Potential profit
- $0.35
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Connecticut governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $5.03
- Potential payout
- $5.32
- Potential profit
- $0.29
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.13
- Potential profit
- $5.13
- User PnL
- -$2
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.83
Yes position
Will NVIDIA reach $192 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.71
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.13
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.51
Yes position
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.44
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.99
Yes position
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.17
No position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.36
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.25
Yes position
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.22
Yes position
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.03
Yes position
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of Costa Rica's presidential election?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.92
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.46
Yes position
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.86
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.53
70k position
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.43
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.15
Yes position
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
Ends Oct 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.77
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?
Ends Nov 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.75
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.73
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.68
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.26
Yes position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.22
Yes position
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.18
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20?Yes 16% 6.25 shares
- Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?Yes 53% 8.06 shares
- Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?Yes 62% 8.06 shares
- Will Solana dip to $80 in May?Yes 54.1% 58.17 shares
- Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?No 98.3% 15.62 shares
- Will Solana dip to $80 in May?Yes 64% 15.63 shares
- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes 92% 173.91 shares
- Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Yes 61% 244.4 shares
- Will Solana dip to $80 in May?Yes 47% 42.55 shares
- Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Yes 60% 16.67 shares
- Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Yes 63.1% 31.67 shares
- Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May 17, 2026?Yes 97.5% 10.26 shares