tourists

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $161.95K
Potential payout: $196.3K
Potential profit: $34.35K
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $18.86K

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $51.98K
Potential payout: $52.8K
Potential profit: $818.34
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $4.59K

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $15.91K
Potential payout: $18.83K
Potential profit: $2.92K
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $1.66K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $7.94K
Potential payout: $18.26K
Potential profit: $10.32K
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$1.68K

No position

Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $13.36K
Potential payout: $15.82K
Potential profit: $2.45K
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $1.58K

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $12.14K
Potential payout: $12.25K
Potential profit: $104.09
User PnL: $127.17

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$190

No position

Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $3.31K
Potential payout: $3.66K
Potential profit: $347.45
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $44.23

No position

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $2.2K
Potential payout: $3.46K
Potential profit: $1.26K
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$598.8

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.17K
Potential profit: $3.17K
User PnL: -$1.83K

Yes position

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $2.72K
Potential payout: $3.12K
Potential profit: $406.12
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: -$60.72

No position

Anduril IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $2.54K
Potential payout: $2.87K
Potential profit: $330.48
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $36.96

Yes position

Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.74K
Potential profit: $1.74K
User PnL: -$1.42K

No position

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $1.17K
Potential payout: $1.26K
Potential profit: $95.38
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $68.85

No position

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $1.05K
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $61.43
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$50.36

No position

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $860.55
Potential payout: $961.51
Potential profit: $100.96
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $144.74

Yes position

Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $926.44
Potential profit: $926.44
User PnL: -$649.95

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 92.2%
Current value: $333.77
Potential payout: $362.2
Potential profit: $28.43
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $126.6

Yes position

Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $208
Potential profit: $208
User PnL: -$203.1

No position

Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $159.51
Potential payout: $183.34
Potential profit: $23.83
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $35.35

Yes position

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $8.47
Potential payout: $146
Potential profit: $137.53
Multiplier: 17.24x
User PnL: -$41.17

No position

Will JUUL relaunch Mango flavor by 2027?

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $56.94
Potential payout: $117.4
Potential profit: $60.46
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: -$47.43

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $113
Potential profit: $113
User PnL: -$5.65

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.87K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.08K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.94K

Yes position

OpenAI browser by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.77K

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.65K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.61K

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.2K

Yes position

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.02K

No position

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.48K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.38K

No position

Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.1K

No position

Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.64K

Yes position

Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.6K

Yes position

Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.52K

No position

Weed rescheduled in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.25K

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.48K

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.41K

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.88K

No position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.79K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $11.74K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?