Yes position
Weed rescheduled by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $8.34
- Potential payout
- $1.04K
- Potential profit
- $1.03K
- Multiplier
- 125.00x
- User PnL
- -$43.45
Polymarket Trader
keybo
0xc71b43cf1a6c9f79743bdf5e15a763d93d7ce265
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $940.46
- Realized PnL
- $1.93K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 50
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $35.27
- Potential payout
- $812.66
- Potential profit
- $777.39
- Multiplier
- 23.04x
- User PnL
- -$39.06
OpenAI position
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 3%
- Current value
- $19.98
- Potential payout
- $665.84
- Potential profit
- $645.87
- Multiplier
- 33.33x
- User PnL
- -$23.13
Yes position
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $499.33
- Potential profit
- $498.58
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.42
N
No position
Will the Republican Party win the OH-08 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $84.74
- Potential payout
- $470.78
- Potential profit
- $386.04
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$7.16
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.4%
- Current value
- $25.6
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $374.4
- Multiplier
- 15.63x
- User PnL
- -$7.2
N
No position
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-37 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $25.81
- Potential payout
- $397
- Potential profit
- $371.2
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$6.95
Yes position
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $30.4
- Potential payout
- $320
- Potential profit
- $289.6
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$17.2
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $13.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $286.5
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$10.1
N
No position
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-19 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $12.72
- Potential payout
- $299.4
- Potential profit
- $286.68
- Multiplier
- 23.53x
- User PnL
- -$6.74
Y
Yes position
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $14.47
- Potential payout
- $289.49
- Potential profit
- $275.02
- Multiplier
- 20.00x
- User PnL
- -$25.45
Yes position
Will Trevor Merrell advance from the CA-04 primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $282.53
- Potential profit
- $282.53
- User PnL
- -$29.92
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $250
- User PnL
- -$27.5
No position
Will Laura Gillen be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $7.75
- Potential payout
- $249.93
- Potential profit
- $242.18
- Multiplier
- 32.26x
- User PnL
- -$5.76
Yes position
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $29.61
- Potential payout
- $247.82
- Potential profit
- $218.2
- Multiplier
- 8.37x
- User PnL
- $14.17
Yes position
Will James Clark be the Republican Nominee for ME-02?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $235.76
- Potential profit
- $235.76
- User PnL
- -$16.35
Yes position
Will Raphael Warnock announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $26.48
- Potential payout
- $230.24
- Potential profit
- $203.76
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- $6.09
N
No position
Will the Republican Party win the TN-01 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $12.85
- Potential payout
- $214.2
- Potential profit
- $201.35
- Multiplier
- 16.67x
- User PnL
- -$5.28
Y
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-08 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $11.22
- Potential payout
- $204
- Potential profit
- $192.78
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$3.95
Yes position
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $5.71
- Potential payout
- $203.99
- Potential profit
- $198.28
- Multiplier
- 35.71x
- User PnL
- -$2.69
No position
Will Amy Klobuchar win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary election?
Ends Aug 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Current value
- $9.4
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $190.6
- Multiplier
- 21.28x
- User PnL
- -$14.6
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $8.1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $191.9
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$8.9
Yes position
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Current value
- $3.7
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $196.3
- Multiplier
- 54.05x
- User PnL
- -$7.3
Y
Yes position
Will the Republican Party win the MD-04 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Current value
- $5.8
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $194.2
- Multiplier
- 34.48x
- User PnL
- -$10.2
N
No position
Will the Republican Party win the KY-05 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $13
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $187
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $2.3
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $197.7
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$9.9
Yes position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.8%
- Current value
- $13.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $186.5
- Multiplier
- 14.81x
- User PnL
- $0.1
Yes position
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $11
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $189
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $13
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $187
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$13.72
Yes position
Will Timothy Wilcox win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?
Ends Aug 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $199
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$15.6
Yes position
Will Phil Parrish win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
Ends Aug 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $1.4
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $198.6
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- -$14.6
Yes position
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $103
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $97
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- -$19.58
Yes position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $11
- Potential payout
- $199.99
- Potential profit
- $189
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$3.12
N
No position
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-09 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $10.96
- Potential payout
- $199.29
- Potential profit
- $188.33
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$5.98
Yes position
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 11%
- Current value
- $21.09
- Potential payout
- $191.71
- Potential profit
- $170.62
- Multiplier
- 9.09x
- User PnL
- -$7.67
Yes position
Will Carnita Atwater win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?
Ends Aug 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $14.98
- Potential payout
- $176.27
- Potential profit
- $161.29
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$1.14
N
No position
Will the Republican Party win the MO-08 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $11.08
- Potential payout
- $170.5
- Potential profit
- $159.42
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$2.98
No position
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $142.34
- Potential payout
- $170.47
- Potential profit
- $28.13
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $5.97
Yes position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $99.03
- Potential payout
- $169.28
- Potential profit
- $70.25
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- -$5.15
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $27.33
- Potential payout
- $165.66
- Potential profit
- $138.33
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$19.05
Yes position
Will The Clearing Company self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $3.6
- Potential payout
- $160.04
- Potential profit
- $156.44
- Multiplier
- 44.44x
- User PnL
- -$6.15
Yes position
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $11.2
- Potential payout
- $160
- Potential profit
- $148.8
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- -$3.2
Yes position
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $2.88
- Potential payout
- $159.76
- Potential profit
- $156.89
- Multiplier
- 55.56x
- User PnL
- -$10.51
Yes position
Will Apple announce an Apple Smart Home Display during the WWDC 2026 keynote?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $159
- Potential profit
- $159
- User PnL
- -$43.52
Yes position
Will Oscar Romero be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.08
- Potential payout
- $154.68
- Potential profit
- $154.6
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.4
Y
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-05 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $8.25
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $141.75
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$2.25
N
No position
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-09 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $9.75
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $140.25
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$1.13
Yes position
Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $148.09
- Potential profit
- $148.09
- User PnL
- -$2.49
Yes position
Fetterman leaves the Democrats by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $3.44
- Potential payout
- $146.2
- Potential profit
- $142.76
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- -$2.45
Yes position
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $13.05
- Potential payout
- $145
- Potential profit
- $131.95
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$10.15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $102.53
Yes position
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- $92.07
Yes position
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89
Yes position
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $87.48
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $87.25
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.41
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.49
Yes position
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.23
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $48
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $47.87
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $46.73
No position
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 6?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.62
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.18
Yes position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $40.07
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 23%
- Multiplier
- 4.35x
- User PnL
- $38.97
No position
Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 10?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $38.86
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $38.3
No position
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 6?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.06
Yes position
Will Trump announce a cut to U.S. military or intelligence aid to Ukraine by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $35
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 5?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $33.85
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $31.91
No position
Will Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.5
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $31.19
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.16
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 2?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.07
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Multiplier
- 20.62x
- User PnL
- $29.95
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $29.74
Yes position
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 6?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 2?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.55
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $27.32
No position
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 2?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.62
Yes position
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $26.06
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $25.84
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25
Yes position
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 9?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.5
Yes position
US strike on Mexico by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $24.46
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4?
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.45
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $24.12
Yes position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $24.01
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.88
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.5
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.44
Yes position
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.34
Yes position
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.11
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.85
Yes position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.65
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.57
Yes position
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.1
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.05
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 10?Yes 13.3% 50 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10?Yes 17% 50 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10?No 65% 50 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10?No 65.9% 100 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10?Yes 8.2% 24.32 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10?Yes 28% 44 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026?Yes 1.7% 7,226 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10?Yes 27.7% 24.35 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10?Yes 35.9% 50 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10?No 71% 50 shares
- Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $660 in May?Yes 0.1% 41.94 shares
- Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $660 in May?Yes 0.2% 1,128 shares