dsds1

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $2.9K
Potential payout: $3.47K
Potential profit: $572.19
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $171.1

No position

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $855.58
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $169.07
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $45.7

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $677.28
Potential payout: $756.74
Potential profit: $79.46
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $46.87

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $346.45
Potential payout: $374.54
Potential profit: $28.09
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.62

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $305.19
Potential payout: $340.99
Potential profit: $35.8
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$2.38

Yes position

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Implied probability: 11.4%
Current value: $34.05
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $265.95
Multiplier: 8.81x
User PnL: -$4.78

No position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $189.06
Potential payout: $232
Potential profit: $42.94
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $3.46

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $199.77
Potential payout: $220.74
Potential profit: $20.97
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $7.82

No position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $193.7
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $6.3
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $8.56
Potential payout: $192.31
Potential profit: $183.75
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: -$1.44

Yes position

Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $95.19
Potential payout: $136.99
Potential profit: $41.79
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$4.81

No position

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $71.61
Potential payout: $112.77
Potential profit: $41.16
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$7.36

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $15.26
Potential payout: $105.26
Potential profit: $90
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$4.74

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $80.17
Potential payout: $100.84
Potential profit: $20.67
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: -$2.63

No position

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $88.99
Potential payout: $95.18
Potential profit: $6.19
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $5.53

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 18.7%
Current value: $17.43
Potential payout: $93.46
Potential profit: $76.03
Multiplier: 5.36x
User PnL: $7.43

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 9.9%
Current value: $7.58
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $69.35
Multiplier: 10.15x
User PnL: -$2.42

Yes position

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $3.3
Potential payout: $69.38
Potential profit: $66.09
Multiplier: 21.05x
User PnL: -$1.7

No position

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Implied probability: 88.7%
Current value: $58.11
Potential payout: $65.56
Potential profit: $7.44
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $3.25

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.8%
Current value: $8.93
Potential payout: $64.94
Potential profit: $56.01
Multiplier: 7.27x
User PnL: -$1.07

No position

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $54.31
Potential payout: $54.5
Potential profit: $0.19
User PnL: $4.31

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $47.28
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $2.73
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.27

No position

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $19.85
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $0.15
User PnL: $3.37

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $9.48
Potential payout: $14.93
Potential profit: $5.45
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$0.52

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.75

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.65

No position

Trump out as President by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $20.02

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.19

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.2%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $14.42

Yes position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.75

No position

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $13.08

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $12.71

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.5

Yes position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.1

No position

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.93

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.36

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 19.6%
Multiplier: 5.12x
User PnL: $6.64

Yes position

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.38

Yes position

Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.87

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $5.86

Yes position

Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $5.16

Yes position

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.1

Yes position

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.33

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 14.3%
Multiplier: 7.02x
User PnL: $3.62

Yes position

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Implied probability: 36.5%
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: $3.2

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.91

No position

New pandemic in 2026?