mini-man

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $2.51K
Potential payout: $9.84K
Potential profit: $7.33K
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$2.29K

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 96.1%
Current value: $8.54K
Potential payout: $8.89K
Potential profit: $351.05
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $424.01

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $6.56K
Potential payout: $7.67K
Potential profit: $1.11K
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $2.41K

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$1.64K

Yes position

Iran leadership change by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$700

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $180.32
Potential payout: $3.28K
Potential profit: $3.1K
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$786.79

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $698.8
Potential payout: $3.25K
Potential profit: $2.55K
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$1.21K

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $618.33
Potential payout: $3.17K
Potential profit: $2.55K
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$618.33

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $2.79K
Potential payout: $2.96K
Potential profit: $168.55
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $429.7

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $23.43
Potential payout: $2.6K
Potential profit: $2.58K
Multiplier: 111.11x
User PnL: -$471.12

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $1.12K
Potential payout: $2.59K
Potential profit: $1.48K
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: $25.95

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $47.77
Potential payout: $2.51K
Potential profit: $2.47K
Multiplier: 52.63x
User PnL: -$481.53

No position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.5K
User PnL: -$115.35

Yes position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.49K
Potential profit: $1.49K
User PnL: -$555.55

Yes position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.36K
Potential profit: $1.36K
User PnL: -$226.36

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.34K
Potential profit: $1.34K
User PnL: -$334.95

Yes position

Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $14.39
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $1.01K
Multiplier: 71.43x
User PnL: -$67.84

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $1.01K
User PnL: -$6.79

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $9.73
Potential payout: $926.42
Potential profit: $916.69
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$119.97

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 51%
Current value: $450.94
Potential payout: $884.2
Potential profit: $433.26
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: $212.21

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Implied probability: 31%
Current value: $224.7
Potential payout: $724.84
Potential profit: $500.14
Multiplier: 3.23x
User PnL: -$29.84

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.44K

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.4K

Yes position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.25K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $3.13K

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.09K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.89K

Yes position

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.62K

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.58K

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.28K

Yes position

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.07K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.56K

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.47K

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.44K

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.4K

Yes position

Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $828.5

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $669.38

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $600.36

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $530.12

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $353.01

Yes position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $327.81

No position

Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $320.21

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $310.61

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $280.23

Yes position

Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?