No position
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $222.01
- Potential payout
- $240.01
- Potential profit
- $18
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $6.53
Polymarket Trader
Crayon
@crayonxyz
0xc95cd16e8c0edcc9090b13030d3e492163db5e0b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.46K
- Realized PnL
- $327.37
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 21
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $196.8
- Potential payout
- $240
- Potential profit
- $43.2
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $27.78
No position
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 25%
- Current value
- $30
- Potential payout
- $120.01
- Potential profit
- $90.01
- Multiplier
- 4.00x
- User PnL
- -$13.5
No position
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $55.8
- Potential payout
- $120.01
- Potential profit
- $64.2
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- $0.48
No position
Will Slingshot launch a token by December 31, 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $55.8
- Potential payout
- $120.01
- Potential profit
- $64.2
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- $41.82
No position
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $95.41
- Potential payout
- $120.01
- Potential profit
- $24.6
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $1.57
No position
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027?
Ends Oct 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $48.6
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $71.4
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $10.84
No position
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 33%
- Current value
- $39.6
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $80.4
- Multiplier
- 3.03x
- User PnL
- -$19.4
N
No position
Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2027?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 64%
- Current value
- $76.8
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $43.2
- Multiplier
- 1.56x
- User PnL
- -$0.4
N
No position
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $49.8
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $70.2
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- $3.48
No position
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $82.2
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $37.8
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- -$1.93
No position
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2027?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $69
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $51
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$1.92
No position
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $60.6
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $59.4
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$3.71
No position
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 73%
- Current value
- $87.6
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $32.4
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- $11.7
No position
Will Concrete launch a token by June 30, 2027?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 31%
- Current value
- $37.2
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $82.8
- Multiplier
- 3.23x
- User PnL
- $6
No position
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $5.4
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $114.6
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$1.47
No position
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $31.8
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $88.2
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$1.91
No position
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $29.4
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $90.6
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$11.53
No position
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $14.4
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $105.6
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- -$18.39
No position
Tim Walz in jail by December 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $111.6
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $8.4
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
No position
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2027?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Current value
- $58.2
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $61.8
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- $3.67
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $87.56
No position
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.67
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: December
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.35
Yes position
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- $16.44
No position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.28
No position
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.58
Yes position
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be between $4.6B and $5.0B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.4
No position
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.68
No position
Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.71
No position
Ben Pasternak jailed?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $9.66
No position
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 93.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $9.59
Yes position
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.65
No position
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.92
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.9
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 15?
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.45
No position
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 69.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $7.08
No position
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.75
Yes position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
No position
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.47
No position
AWS service disrupted by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.32
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 15?
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.2
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?
Ends Jan 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.68
No position
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.53
No position
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.51
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Tim Walz in jail by December 31?No 93% 40 shares
- Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027?No 11% 60 shares
- Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027?No 4% 5 shares
- Will Concrete launch a token by June 30, 2027?No 32% 30.01 shares
- Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027?No 29% 30 shares
- Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2027?No 51% 10 shares
- Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2027?No 65% 30 shares
- US strike on Colombia by December 31?No 79% 5 shares
- Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027?No 43% 30 shares
- Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?No 76% 0.01 shares
- Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?No 83.3% 19.95 shares
- Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026?No 27.3% 30 shares