No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $1.03K
- Potential payout
- $1.09K
- Potential profit
- $59.75
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $16.63
Polymarket Trader
alfredon996
0xc96a71d464f16a5f7f948cb9d0d34a2f2409702c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.04K
- Realized PnL
- $1.24K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $666.67
- Potential profit
- $666.67
- User PnL
- -$4
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Current value
- $308.7
- Potential payout
- $320.07
- Potential profit
- $11.36
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $8.7
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $258.5
- Potential payout
- $276.47
- Potential profit
- $17.97
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $8.49
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $206.22
- Potential payout
- $233.02
- Potential profit
- $26.8
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $6.22
No position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $175.53
- Potential payout
- $191.83
- Potential profit
- $16.31
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $35.26
No position
US x China Military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $152.38
- Potential payout
- $159.56
- Potential profit
- $7.18
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $3.78
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $139.23
- Potential payout
- $148.12
- Potential profit
- $8.89
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $9.23
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $135.96
- Potential payout
- $143.88
- Potential profit
- $7.91
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $5.96
No position
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $123.41
- Potential payout
- $136.36
- Potential profit
- $12.95
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.41
No position
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $103.95
- Potential profit
- $103.95
- User PnL
- -$80
No position
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $60.13
- Potential payout
- $65.71
- Potential profit
- $5.59
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.13
No position
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $50.41
- Potential payout
- $57.95
- Potential profit
- $7.53
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $53.67
- Potential payout
- $55.99
- Potential profit
- $2.32
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $3.67
No position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $48.68
- Potential payout
- $55
- Potential profit
- $6.33
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $5.78
No position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.4%
- Current value
- $51.87
- Potential payout
- $54.95
- Potential profit
- $3.08
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.87
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Current value
- $52.2
- Potential payout
- $54.35
- Potential profit
- $2.15
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $2.2
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $43.22
- Potential payout
- $51.76
- Potential profit
- $8.54
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$1.18
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $43.43
- Potential payout
- $50.8
- Potential profit
- $7.37
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $3.43
No position
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97%
- Current value
- $48.48
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $1.52
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.73
No position
X banned in any European country by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $34.76
- Potential payout
- $44.29
- Potential profit
- $9.52
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $3.76
No position
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $23.33
- Potential payout
- $35.63
- Potential profit
- $12.29
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $3.33
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35.38
- Potential profit
- $35.38
- User PnL
- -$22.4
No position
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $2.67
- Potential payout
- $33.4
- Potential profit
- $30.73
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$21.71
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $356.29
Yes position
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $309.28
No position
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.12
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.65
No position
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.63
No position
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.19
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.86
No position
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.48
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.92
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.75
No position
Xi Jinping out before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.58
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.83
No position
Trump out as President by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.29
No position
Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.27
No position
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.21
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.56
No position
Canada recession in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.12
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.73
No position
Kurds declare independence from Iran?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.89
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.61
No position
5kt meteor strike in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.98
Yes position
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.44
No position
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $4.41
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.37
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No 93% 1,075.27 shares
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No 87% 11.49 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 87% 114.94 shares
- Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?No 92% 54.35 shares
- Russia coup attempt in 2026?No 88% 86.36 shares
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?No 98.6% 77.7 shares
- Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?No 97.2% 12.34 shares
- Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by June 30?Yes 1.1% 142.85 shares
- Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?No 99% 106.27 shares
- Greta Thunberg arrested by December 31?No 87% 10 shares
- Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?No 95.5% 50 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No 86% 40 shares