No position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 61.7%
- Current value
- $493.2
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $306.8
- Multiplier
- 1.62x
- User PnL
- -$16.4
Polymarket Trader
gonna-cook
@shangoo15126716
0xc96ea207710bff7ebb74b484e695f30fe9d58c59
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $601.29
- Realized PnL
- $701.93
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 38.4%
- Current value
- $23.01
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $36.99
- Multiplier
- 2.61x
- User PnL
- -$1.75
Yes position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 40%
- Current value
- $16
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $24
- Multiplier
- 2.50x
- User PnL
- -$4.4
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $16.7
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $3.3
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $6.3
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.2%
- Current value
- $3.23
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $16.77
- Multiplier
- 6.19x
- User PnL
- -$3.88
Yes position
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $0.33
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.67
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$1.97
Yes position
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $5.93
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $9.08
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $3.18
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.4%
- Current value
- $3.07
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $11.93
- Multiplier
- 4.89x
- User PnL
- $0.28
Yes position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $5.93
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $9.08
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- -$3.02
No position
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $3.05
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $6.95
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Yes position
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $1.15
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $8.85
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$1.65
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.7%
- Current value
- $0.37
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.64
- Multiplier
- 27.40x
- User PnL
- -$0.74
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 12.3%
- Current value
- $1.23
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $8.78
- Multiplier
- 8.16x
- User PnL
- -$0.38
Y
Yes position
Will Spain be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $5.25
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.27
Yes position
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Aug 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $2.61
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $3.39
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $1.28
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $3.73
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$1.63
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $3.03
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.98
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $0.48
Yes position
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $2.73
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.28
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $2.82
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.18
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$0.18
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.6%
- Current value
- $1.03
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $3.97
- Multiplier
- 4.87x
- User PnL
- -$0.87
No position
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58%
- Current value
- $2.9
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.1
- Multiplier
- 1.72x
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $2.93
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.08
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $0.22
No position
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $3.18
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.83
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $1.57
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $4.87
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.27
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Ends Oct 25, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $288.58
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.05
No position
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.29
Yes position
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.96
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.95
No position
Will Trump say "Black men" during Georgia speech on Oct 15?
Ends Oct 15, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.4
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.59
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.44
Eagles position
Lions vs. Eagles
Ends Nov 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.5
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.41
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.5
No position
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.33
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.5
Yes position
Will Trump say "frack" or "fracking" 3 or more times during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20?
Ends Oct 20, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15
Yes position
Will the Republican candidate win Iowa by 10.0% or more?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.77
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.5
Yes position
Will Trump say "Vance" during Colorado rally on October 11?
Ends Oct 11, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.8
No position
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.52
Yes position
Bitcoin up on Nov 6?
Ends Nov 6, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.1
No position
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Michigan rally on Nov 4?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.7
No position
Israel military response against Iran in October?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.05
No position
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.2
Yes position
Will Türkiye recognize Syrian government by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Yes 54% 5 shares
- Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 44% 6 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 44% 5 shares
- Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5Under 46% 5 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 58% 5 shares
- Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17?18.7% 10.7 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?No 70% 5 shares
- Knicks vs. SpursKnicks 36% 5 shares
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No 49% 2.04 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?No 61% 5 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?No 50% 5 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 42% 5 shares