0xc978...aa84

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $10.87K
Potential payout: $13.34K
Potential profit: $2.47K
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$274.95

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $12.24K
Potential payout: $12.47K
Potential profit: $230.64
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $122.8

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $6.7K
Potential payout: $6.72K
Potential profit: $16.8
User PnL: $801.69

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $3.66K
Potential payout: $4.04K
Potential profit: $384.12
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $214.09

Yes position

Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $28.79
Potential payout: $3.84K
Potential profit: $3.81K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$56.32

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 16.1%
Current value: $475.71
Potential payout: $2.96K
Potential profit: $2.49K
Multiplier: 6.23x
User PnL: $475.71

No position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $2.85K
Potential payout: $2.95K
Potential profit: $98.74
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$27.36

Yes position

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $47.27
Potential payout: $2.25K
Potential profit: $2.2K
Multiplier: 47.62x
User PnL: -$47.67

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $1.4K
Potential payout: $1.64K
Potential profit: $237.98
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$41.03

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $799.96
Potential payout: $1.28K
Potential profit: $479.98
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: -$114.23

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $1.21K
Potential payout: $1.22K
Potential profit: $11.56
User PnL: $12.14

No position

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $1.17K
Potential payout: $1.17K
Potential profit: $1.76
User PnL: $78.6

Yes position

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $887.33
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $150.48
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $25.65

Yes position

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.38
Potential payout: $764.58
Potential profit: $764.2
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$286.59

No position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $751.05
Potential payout: $756.72
Potential profit: $5.68
User PnL: $21.27

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Implied probability: 88.9%
Current value: $642.98
Potential payout: $723.26
Potential profit: $80.28
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $136.28

No position

Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $627.15
Potential payout: $634.13
Potential profit: $6.98
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $4.46

Yes position

Kash Patel out by December 31?

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $303.66
Potential payout: $589.64
Potential profit: $285.97
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$164.06

Yes position

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $12.94
Potential payout: $550.56
Potential profit: $537.62
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: $12.94

No position

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $441.19
Potential payout: $487.51
Potential profit: $46.31
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $81.89

Yes position

Starmer out by August 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $387.9
Potential payout: $417.1
Potential profit: $29.2
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $9.48
Potential payout: $291.55
Potential profit: $282.07
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$2.77

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $14.74
Potential payout: $268
Potential profit: $253.26
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$220.64

No position

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $254.38
Potential payout: $258.91
Potential profit: $4.53
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.28

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.94K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.3K

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02K

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $825.21

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $769

No position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $650.91

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $352.71

Yes position

Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $318.64

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $308.38

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $291.31

No position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $251.28

No position

Starmer out by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $246.47

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $242.95

Yes position

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $225.2

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $224.21

No position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $219.69

No position

SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $160.11

No position

Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $159.28

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $154.19

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $153.98

No position

Will the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $142.58

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $134.29

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $121.06

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?