0xca3E18433673840A94b0376604068cf2e65CC9FF-1767540204047

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $104.25
Potential profit: $104.25
User PnL: -$40

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100.27
Potential profit: $100.27
User PnL: -$48.13

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.58
Potential profit: $83.58
User PnL: -$38.44

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 95.4%
Current value: $73.85
Potential payout: $77.45
Potential profit: $3.6
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $48.85

Yes position

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $43.54
Potential payout: $66.47
Potential profit: $22.93
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $13.54

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61.39
Potential profit: $61.39
User PnL: -$28.86

Yes position

Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.6
Potential profit: $56.6
User PnL: -$3

No position

Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 170m and 180m?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.95
Potential profit: $49.95
User PnL: -$10

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.12
Potential profit: $48.12
User PnL: -$19.71

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $43.4
Potential payout: $46.66
Potential profit: $3.27
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $13.4

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 20?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $45.45
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $44.65
Potential profit: $44.65
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $1.47
Potential payout: $42.5
Potential profit: $41.03
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$8.53

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40.54
Potential profit: $40.54
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $39.73
Potential payout: $40.23
Potential profit: $0.5
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $4.73

Yes position

Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $0.76
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $39.24
Multiplier: 52.63x
User PnL: -$3.24

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.46
Potential profit: $35.46
User PnL: -$20

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.25
Potential profit: $34.25
User PnL: -$25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32.97
Potential profit: $32.97
User PnL: -$9.89

Yes position

Will "The Addams Family" be the top global Netflix movie this week?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.88
Potential profit: $29.88
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $23.16
Potential payout: $28.42
Potential profit: $5.26
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $13.16

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $168.27

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.8

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38

Yes position

Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.67

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.19

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.92

Yes position

Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.02

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.74

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.79

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $16.31

Yes position

Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.99

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.55

Yes position

Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (January 20, 2026)

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.24

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.95

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.52

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.4

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.67

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.73

No position

Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by March 31?