No position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $100
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $29
Polymarket Trader
0xca4a...e55b
0xca4a6b721db08504013a0ac37c2fc6195a13e55b
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $120.28
- Realized PnL
- -$6.61
- Win rate
- 33.3%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 3
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.09
- Potential payout
- $37
- Potential profit
- $36.91
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.94
Yes position
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Current value
- $0.7
- Potential payout
- $37
- Potential profit
- $36.3
- Multiplier
- 52.63x
- User PnL
- -$0.89
Yes position
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $5.84
- Potential payout
- $16
- Potential profit
- $10.16
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.56
No position
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.9%
- Current value
- $6.5
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.1%
- Current value
- $6.17
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $0.83
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- -$1.04
Yes position
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $0.7
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.3
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $0.27
- Potential payout
- $3
- Potential profit
- $2.73
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.19
Yes position
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$6.8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Modi out by December 31, 2026?No 93% 7 shares
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?No 88.1% 7 shares
- US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?Yes 16% 8 shares
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Yes 19% 11 shares
- Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Yes 20.8% 5 shares
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?No 84% 20 shares
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?Yes 17% 23 shares
- Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 10.9% 37 shares
- Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 4.3% 37 shares
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?Yes 40% 16 shares