delphilo

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.88K
Potential profit: $1.88K
User PnL: -$126.9

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.65K
Potential profit: $1.65K
User PnL: -$18.98

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.51K
Potential profit: $1.51K
User PnL: -$1.18K

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.2K
User PnL: -$6.95

No position

Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $1.13K
Potential payout: $1.17K
Potential profit: $41.54
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $295.94

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $6.48
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $1.07K
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$484.2

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $1.05K
User PnL: -$391.54

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $864.29
Potential payout: $960.32
Potential profit: $96.03
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $356.21

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 19.9%
Current value: $157.09
Potential payout: $791.38
Potential profit: $634.29
Multiplier: 5.04x
User PnL: -$29.91

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 2.2%
Current value: $13.36
Potential payout: $607.36
Potential profit: $594
Multiplier: 45.45x
User PnL: -$48.94

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $524.15
Potential payout: $575.99
Potential profit: $51.84
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $43.15

Yes position

Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $8.93
Potential payout: $541.35
Potential profit: $532.41
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $0.33

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $387.97
Potential payout: $535.14
Potential profit: $147.16
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: -$11.83

Yes position

Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $2.14
Potential payout: $476.19
Potential profit: $474.05
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$7.86

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $2.55
Potential payout: $392.85
Potential profit: $390.29
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$17.45

Yes position

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.7%
Current value: $47.14
Potential payout: $371.14
Potential profit: $324.01
Multiplier: 7.87x
User PnL: -$48.86

Yes position

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $345.85
Potential profit: $345.85
User PnL: -$4.8

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $344.41
Potential profit: $344.41
User PnL: -$215.77

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $16.5
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $316.83
Multiplier: 20.20x
User PnL: $3.5

Yes position

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $332
Potential profit: $332
User PnL: -$9.96

Yes position

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $7.86
Potential payout: $320.98
Potential profit: $313.12
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$1.78

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300.01
Potential profit: $300.01
User PnL: -$183.25

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $299.29
Potential profit: $299.29
User PnL: -$86.56

Yes position

Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $2.8
Potential payout: $294.66
Potential profit: $291.86
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$3.2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.07K

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01K

No position

Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $716.14

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $689.42

No position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $629.96

No position

Maduro out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $591.11

No position

Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $464.8

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $390.6

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $382.89

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $368.12

Yes position

Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $334.76

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $332.2

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $330.06

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $324.02

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $320.31

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $295.48

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $283.75

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $202.3

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $202.02

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $196.18

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190.8

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $188.93

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?