Qwe66

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $2.34
Potential payout: $780
Potential profit: $777.66
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$263.2

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $7.28
Potential payout: $766
Potential profit: $758.72
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$221.98

Yes position

US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $498
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$37

Yes position

Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $378.99
Potential profit: $378.99
User PnL: -$127.16

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $1.3
Potential payout: $371
Potential profit: $369.7
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$58.15

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 6.3%
Current value: $22.05
Potential payout: $350
Potential profit: $327.95
Multiplier: 15.87x
User PnL: -$26.95

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $16.95
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $283.05
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$31.05

Yes position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $19.46
Potential payout: $278
Potential profit: $258.54
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$30.58

Yes position

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 31.3%
Current value: $81.25
Potential payout: $260
Potential profit: $178.75
Multiplier: 3.20x
User PnL: $9.85

Yes position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $35.1
Potential payout: $260
Potential profit: $224.9
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$63.7

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $220
Potential profit: $220
User PnL: -$51.48

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $103
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $97
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $39

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $163.84
Potential payout: $166
Potential profit: $2.16
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $62.98

Yes position

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $25.92
Potential payout: $162
Potential profit: $136.08
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$84.24

No position

Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $148
Potential profit: $148
User PnL: -$101.96

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $57
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $63
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$7.8

Yes position

Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $109.67
Potential profit: $109.67
User PnL: -$55.91

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $107.63
Potential profit: $107.63
User PnL: -$71.94

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $40.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $59.5
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$9.5

No position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$24.02

No position

Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $53.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $46.5
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $6.5

No position

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$72

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $9.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $90.5
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$46.5

No position

Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $42.75
Potential payout: $83
Potential profit: $40.26
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$7.06

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $382.18

No position

Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $277.94

Yes position

Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.1

No position

Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $141.34

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $116.09

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $114.3

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.72

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.66

No position

TikTok sale announced in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $96.38

No position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.8

No position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $84.54

Yes position

Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.3

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.18

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.08

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.04

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69

No position

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.7

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.3

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.19

No position

Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.77

Yes position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $47.04

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.96

No position

Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.36

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?