0xca6e...73e8

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $119.53
Potential payout: $120.31
Potential profit: $0.78
User PnL: $41.26

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 37.8%
Current value: $42.35
Potential payout: $112.2
Potential profit: $69.84
Multiplier: 2.65x
User PnL: -$0.94

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.43
Potential payout: $66.66
Potential profit: $66.22
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$5.57

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $48.61
Potential payout: $48.68
Potential profit: $0.07
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $38.19
Potential payout: $38.52
Potential profit: $0.33
User PnL: $2.21

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $31.81
Potential profit: $31.79
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$7.3

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.18
Potential payout: $27.04
Potential profit: $26.86
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.83

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $21.54
Potential payout: $22.24
Potential profit: $0.7
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $1.04

Yes position

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $0.52
Potential payout: $20.41
Potential profit: $19.89
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$0.48

Yes position

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $18.56
Potential payout: $18.57
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.96
Potential payout: $17.42
Potential profit: $16.47
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$1.04

Yes position

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $16.39
Potential profit: $16.28
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$0.89

No position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $15.1
Potential payout: $15.13
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $2.11

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $3.14
Potential payout: $14.95
Potential profit: $11.81
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: -$1.01

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $0.35
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $10.76
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$0.65

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $0.72
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $10.39
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $2.68
Potential payout: $10.93
Potential profit: $8.25
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$0.27

No position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $4.65
Potential payout: $10.81
Potential profit: $6.16
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: -$0.87

Yes position

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $10.51
Potential profit: $10.3
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: -$1.79

Yes position

Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.9
Potential profit: $9.9
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $6.63
Potential payout: $6.93
Potential profit: $0.3
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.91

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $5.7
Potential payout: $6.2
Potential profit: $0.5
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $0.49
Potential payout: $6.12
Potential profit: $5.63
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$0.55

Yes position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Implied probability: 63.3%
Current value: $3.42
Potential payout: $5.4
Potential profit: $1.98
Multiplier: 1.58x
User PnL: $0.42

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $534.38

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $425

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $191.58

No position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.42

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.7

No position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.01

No position

Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.86

No position

Will Trump say "Third term" in March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.2

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.22

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.31

No position

Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.81

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.5

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.76

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.68

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.92

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.59

No position

Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m?

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.37

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.62

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.61

Yes position

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.52

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.95

No position

Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.3

Yes position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.15

Yes position

Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?