Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $4.14
- Potential payout
- $2.76K
- Potential profit
- $2.76K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$129.85
Polymarket Trader
tonton69
0xca903676c5f5561885a38a75109ba10d05a8813a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $73.75
- Realized PnL
- -$71.73
- Win rate
- 29.2%
- Open positions
- 20
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $2.92
- Potential payout
- $486.4
- Potential profit
- $483.48
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$2.08
Yes position
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $333.33
- Potential profit
- $333.33
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.3%
- Current value
- $21.86
- Potential payout
- $263.42
- Potential profit
- $241.56
- Multiplier
- 12.05x
- User PnL
- $6.17
No position
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $181.34
- Potential profit
- $181.34
- User PnL
- -$8
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $6.62
- Potential payout
- $88.24
- Potential profit
- $81.62
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$23.38
Yes position
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.1%
- Current value
- $10.1
- Potential payout
- $66.89
- Potential profit
- $56.79
- Multiplier
- 6.62x
- User PnL
- -$9.9
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $7.94
- Potential payout
- $58.82
- Potential profit
- $50.88
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$2.06
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $0.8
- Potential payout
- $55.32
- Potential profit
- $54.51
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$14.2
No position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $12.05
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $33.41
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- $7.05
No position
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38.46
- Potential profit
- $38.46
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $29.36
- Multiplier
- 46.73x
- User PnL
- -$2.36
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.84
- Potential profit
- $26.84
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Current value
- $0.58
- Potential payout
- $20.46
- Potential profit
- $19.88
- Multiplier
- 35.09x
- User PnL
- -$2.08
No position
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.06
- Potential payout
- $18.52
- Potential profit
- $18.45
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$4.94
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.24
- Potential profit
- $17.24
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $0.59
- Potential payout
- $15.82
- Potential profit
- $15.23
- Multiplier
- 26.67x
- User PnL
- -$4.41
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $5.43
- Potential payout
- $14.29
- Potential profit
- $8.86
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- $0.43
Yes position
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.76
- Potential profit
- $11.76
- User PnL
- -$4
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.77
Yes position
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.41
No position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $26.43
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.51
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?
Ends Oct 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.12
No position
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.04
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 1?
Ends Oct 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4
No position
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7
No position
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$11
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$16
Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$16
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$32
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$45
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes 8.6% 101.08 shares
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 0.2% 500 shares
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 1% 486.4 shares
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes 6.7% 74.3 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No 35% 14.29 shares
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes 2.3% 88.05 shares
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes 17% 58.82 shares
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 2.4% 841.78 shares
- Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026Yes 29.9% 66.89 shares
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?No 11% 45.45 shares
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?No 13% 38.46 shares
- Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?Yes 34% 11.76 shares