0xCAa2DD076864564c392E1eBD01d6b7F150a215EA-1775507441257

Implied probability: 14.7%
Current value: $588
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $3.41K
Multiplier: 6.80x
User PnL: $156

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $100.24
Potential payout: $2.31K
Potential profit: $2.21K
Multiplier: 23.04x
User PnL: $0.24

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.74K
Potential profit: $1.74K
User PnL: -$110

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $847.76
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $652.97
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $347.77

Yes position

Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $666.67
Potential profit: $666.67
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $5.91
Potential payout: $454.55
Potential profit: $448.64
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: -$4.09

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $374.99
Potential profit: $374.99
User PnL: -$18.34

Yes position

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $18.82
Potential payout: $355.01
Potential profit: $336.2
Multiplier: 18.87x
User PnL: -$1.18

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 29?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $350.57
Potential profit: $350.57
User PnL: -$12.11

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $213.5
Potential profit: $213.5
User PnL: -$6.4

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 6?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $173.42
Potential profit: $173.42
User PnL: -$20.81

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or below on June 6?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $157.64
Potential profit: $157.64
User PnL: -$23.65

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or below on June 6?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $115.44
Potential profit: $115.44
User PnL: -$6.11

No position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 6?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $115.36
Potential profit: $115.36
User PnL: -$12.69

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $81.75
Potential profit: $81.75
User PnL: -$3.18

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $2.29
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $69.14
Multiplier: 31.25x
User PnL: -$2.71

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 6?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $62.5
User PnL: -$8.75

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $10.79
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $41.84
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $0.79

Spurs position

Spurs vs. Knicks

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50.63
Potential profit: $50.63
User PnL: -$40

No position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 5?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.86
Potential profit: $48.86
User PnL: -$2.09

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 6?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.99
Potential profit: $38.99
User PnL: -$2.74

No position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.27
Potential profit: $36.27
User PnL: -$8.7

No position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.63
Potential profit: $25.63
User PnL: -$12.15

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.21
Potential profit: $25.21
User PnL: -$15.29

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Knicks position

Knicks vs. Spurs

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $406.06

Knicks position

Knicks vs. Spurs

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $331.81

No position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 13?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $154.12

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $138.4

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.05

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 11?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.43

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 11?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.27

No position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 13?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.84

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 12?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.15

No position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or higher on April 12?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.37

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 8?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.7

No position

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 6?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.84

No position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.48

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 11?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.98

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 11?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.83

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.56

No position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 8?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.88

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 9?

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.45

No position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.08

No position

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on April 8?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.46

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 13?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.31

No position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 8?