0xcAF59289145789242A4Af6b975997344229841ab-1772187322857

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $212.17
Potential profit: $212.17
User PnL: -$6.37

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $18.48
Potential payout: $154.61
Potential profit: $136.13
Multiplier: 8.37x
User PnL: $10.85

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $145.16
Potential profit: $145.16
User PnL: -$4.35

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 17.8%
Current value: $25.13
Potential payout: $141.58
Potential profit: $116.45
Multiplier: 5.63x
User PnL: $18.08

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $1.55
Potential payout: $123.85
Potential profit: $122.3
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$5.62

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $5.01
Potential payout: $117.87
Potential profit: $112.86
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: -$2.06

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $101.03
Potential profit: $101.03
User PnL: -$7.07

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 38.9%
Current value: $28.85
Potential payout: $74.25
Potential profit: $45.4
Multiplier: 2.57x
User PnL: $22.16

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $1.36
Potential payout: $58
Potential profit: $56.64
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$1.54

Yes position

Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.12
Potential profit: $57.12
User PnL: -$7.43

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Implied probability: 62.2%
Current value: $31.39
Potential payout: $50.51
Potential profit: $19.12
Multiplier: 1.61x
User PnL: $24.32

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $2.18
Potential payout: $48.91
Potential profit: $46.73
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: -$6.14

Yes position

Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $6.13
Potential payout: $47.14
Potential profit: $41.01
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$1.41

Yes position

Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $3.26
Potential payout: $46.53
Potential profit: $43.27
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$3.26

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $6.34
Potential payout: $43.75
Potential profit: $37.4
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$1.97

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.98
Potential profit: $38.98
User PnL: -$6.24

Yes position

Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $5.85
Potential payout: $37.71
Potential profit: $31.87
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$2.07

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $9.1
Potential payout: $37.13
Potential profit: $28.03
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $1.67

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.5
Potential profit: $36.5
User PnL: -$2.56

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 7.7%
Current value: $2.48
Potential payout: $32.44
Potential profit: $29.96
Multiplier: 13.07x
User PnL: -$4.62

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $2.37
Potential payout: $31.55
Potential profit: $29.18
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$5.84

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $1.08
Potential payout: $30.61
Potential profit: $29.53
Multiplier: 28.25x
User PnL: -$2.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $7.57
Potential payout: $29.7
Potential profit: $22.13
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $6.14
Potential payout: $28.56
Potential profit: $22.42
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$1.57

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 29?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $195.93

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 13?

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.65

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.72

No position

Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.74

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.7

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.88

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4?

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.29

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.72

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.47

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.68

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.29

Anna Blinkova position

Austin: Renata Zarazua vs Anna Blinkova

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $46.4

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.22

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.05

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.37

Yes position

Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events in Rockland County?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.31

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.01

Yes position

Will Trump say "Life" 13+ times during Coast Guard event?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.43

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.54

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.49

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.21

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?