Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $87.34K
- Potential profit
- $87.34K
- User PnL
- -$1.5K
Polymarket Trader
6089261455
0xcb01ca833ffd79a8c8e349c45aaff25ebce9ead3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $9.78K
- Realized PnL
- $39.82K
- Win rate
- 54.2%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $80.03K
- Potential profit
- $80.03K
- User PnL
- -$7.57K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $78.5
- Potential payout
- $52.33K
- Potential profit
- $52.25K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$4.97K
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $39.16K
- Potential profit
- $39.16K
- User PnL
- -$2K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.72K
- Potential profit
- $32.72K
- User PnL
- -$399.94
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27.4K
- Potential profit
- $27.4K
- User PnL
- -$869.6
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.3%
- Current value
- $1.63K
- Potential payout
- $22.29K
- Potential profit
- $20.67K
- Multiplier
- 13.70x
- User PnL
- -$1.47K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.26K
- Potential profit
- $17.26K
- User PnL
- -$1.7K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.78K
- Potential profit
- $13.78K
- User PnL
- -$1K
Yes position
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $293.75
- Potential payout
- $12.5K
- Potential profit
- $12.21K
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- $93.75
Yes position
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $183.33
- Potential payout
- $11.11K
- Potential profit
- $10.93K
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$16.66
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.11K
- Potential profit
- $11.11K
- User PnL
- -$1.61K
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.8%
- Current value
- $476.31
- Potential payout
- $10.03K
- Potential profit
- $9.55K
- Multiplier
- 21.05x
- User PnL
- -$28.69
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$195.97
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.6%
- Current value
- $5.32K
- Potential payout
- $7.55K
- Potential profit
- $2.22K
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $2.33K
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.29K
- Potential profit
- $7.29K
- User PnL
- -$3K
Yes position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.14K
- Potential profit
- $6.14K
- User PnL
- -$500
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.67K
- Potential profit
- $5.67K
- User PnL
- -$176.67
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.5K
- Potential profit
- $5.5K
- User PnL
- -$700
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$449.99
Yes position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $826.92
- Potential payout
- $3.85K
- Potential profit
- $3.02K
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- -$173.07
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.33K
- Potential profit
- $3.33K
- User PnL
- -$500
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $572.98
- Potential payout
- $3.11K
- Potential profit
- $2.53K
- Multiplier
- 5.42x
- User PnL
- $72.98
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.7%
- Current value
- $401.47
- Potential payout
- $2.94K
- Potential profit
- $2.54K
- Multiplier
- 7.33x
- User PnL
- -$98.53
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.55K
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.95K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.01K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.32K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $984.32
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $691.1
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $427.03
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $261.36
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $164.45
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $159.25
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $154.72
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.1
Yes position
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$39.15
Yes position
Trump out as President by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$46.7
Yes position
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$49.99
Yes position
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$63.25
Yes position
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$149.97
Yes position
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$150
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$200
No position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$209.99
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Yes 5% 10,027.53 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 45.6% 2,191.02 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 42.5% 2,354.41 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 18.2% 2,742.41 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 10.8% 10,189.11 shares
- Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde?Yes 8% 1,250 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 18.1% 5,525.54 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 15.2% 6,579.22 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 0.8% 3,124.09 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 25.9% 3,867.22 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 14?Yes 5.2% 6,913.45 shares
- Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan?Yes 7.5% 1,340.26 shares