Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 23.4%
- Current value
- $7.37K
- Potential payout
- $31.57K
- Potential profit
- $24.2K
- Multiplier
- 4.28x
- User PnL
- -$3.2K
Polymarket Trader
0xcb58C474467A6Dca91D16E346F8f0fE87DFC0160-1768538034918
0xcb58c474467a6dca91d16e346f8f0fe87dfc0160
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $157.98K
- Realized PnL
- $38.36K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $22.09K
- Potential payout
- $22.13K
- Potential profit
- $33.19
- User PnL
- $671.89
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $19.3K
- Potential payout
- $19.5K
- Potential profit
- $204.75
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $705.3
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $12.32K
- Potential payout
- $15.12K
- Potential profit
- $2.8K
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $72.88
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $14.43K
- Potential payout
- $14.47K
- Potential profit
- $36.18
- User PnL
- $2.56K
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $12.84K
- Potential payout
- $12.95K
- Potential profit
- $110.07
- User PnL
- $1.7K
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $9.68K
- Potential payout
- $10.01K
- Potential profit
- $330.23
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $778.48
No position
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Current value
- $9.68K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $325
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$105
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $9.05K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $950
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$3.03K
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Current value
- $9.37K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $625
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $30.11
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $7.35K
- Potential payout
- $8.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.15K
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$42.5
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $7.92K
- Potential payout
- $8K
- Potential profit
- $76
- User PnL
- $186.01
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $4.83K
- Potential payout
- $5.4K
- Potential profit
- $567
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $891
Yes position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $2.37K
- Potential payout
- $2.84K
- Potential profit
- $469.06
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $14.21
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $2.26K
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $237.5
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $212.5
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $2.29K
- Potential payout
- $2.33K
- Potential profit
- $34.88
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $37.2
Yes position
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $36.95
- Potential payout
- $1.76K
- Potential profit
- $1.72K
- Multiplier
- 47.62x
- User PnL
- -$38.71
Yes position
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $1.56K
- Potential payout
- $1.7K
- Potential profit
- $144.5
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $25.5
Yes position
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.8
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $1.6K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$79.2
No position
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 62%
- Current value
- $936.73
- Potential payout
- $1.51K
- Potential profit
- $574.12
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- -$205.08
No position
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $1.25K
- Potential payout
- $1.26K
- Potential profit
- $3.14
- User PnL
- $25.76
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $445.03
- Potential payout
- $712.05
- Potential profit
- $267.02
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$110.37
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $588.25
- Potential payout
- $650
- Potential profit
- $61.75
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $172.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.07K
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.9K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.92K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.75K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.74K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.6K
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31K
No position
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25K
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14K
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
No position
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1K
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $964.34
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $944
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $743.6
No position
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $562.01
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $473.5
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $457.7
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $440
No position
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $388.1
No position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $360.31
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $330
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $317.2
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $309.42
Yes position
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $279.34
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No 87% 1,000 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 91% 10,000 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Yes 83% 689.85 shares
- Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 97.8% 10,000 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ETDown 87.4% 114.44 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Yes 30.2% 6,072.15 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?No 99.3% 6,000 shares
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes 65% 2,966.31 shares
- Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?Yes 92% 434.5 shares
- Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?No 91% 198.23 shares
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 24.9% 2,160.02 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 62% 1,701.31 shares